Posted at 5:00 a.m.
As new cases of COVID-19 are less and less representative, we will have to wait to see hospitalizations stabilize before knowing when Quebec will have reached the peak of the fifth wave. This is still far from the case, but already, signs of optimism are on the horizon.
Barely in place, the new interim national public health director, Dr.r Luc Boileau, indeed indicated Tuesday that this peak “could arrive shortly”. “Has it arrived, is it installed?” As we speak, we are not able to confirm it. We hope that for all of us, that goes without saying, ”he said. The new chief responsible for managing the pandemic says he has “hope” that a slowdown in growth will be observed “soon”.
“The most important indicator for monitoring the evolution of the pandemic is no longer the number of cases, but the number of hospitalizations, particularly in intensive care”, also added the Prime Minister, François Legault, to its ratings.
Faced with the sharp increase in cases in December, Quebec decided to restrict access to screening tests. The number of new cases discovered has thus started to decrease for nearly a week, but it remains difficult to see a real trend in the evolution of the pandemic.
“Our screening system is saturated, so we can no longer rely on cases of infection, we know that. But hospitalization cases will really be the major issue. At the moment, we not only have an increase in the network, but also major problems in terms of personnel. These are two elements that go against the grain to properly control the fifth wave ”, second virologist Benoît Barbeau, professor in the department of biological sciences at UQAM.
Mr. Barbeau affirms that the positivity rate of the samples tested will nevertheless remain an “important indicator”, insofar as it will make it possible to detect a point of decline among the clienteles favored for screening, particularly in the health network and in the some more vulnerable populations.
One thing is certain: “It will remain important to know where Quebec is in the fifth wave”, says Mr. Barbeau, if only to reassure the population that a certain trend is reached, namely the famous “plateau”. that other states around the world are already seeing.
Reaching the peak in hospitalizations does not mean that deaths will stop increasing. On the contrary, we can expect that the human toll will continue to increase for a little over a week. In the previous four waves, deaths have continued to increase for seven to ten days after peaking in hospitalizations. However, it is still too early to say when Quebec will reach the peak of hospitalizations. The number of admissions is still up 56% over one week. Quebec set a new record on Tuesday, with 433 entries. Intensive care admissions also remain on the rise. There are an average of 39 per day, compared to 29 outings.
Repercussions on the measures?
Reaching a plateau will most likely “have repercussions on all the other measures, starting with the curfew, or even the closure of shops”, observes the specialist in public policies at the School of Public Health of the University of Montreal (ESPUM) Marie-Pascale Pomey.
If we realize that, in fact, Delta has passed and that Omicron is putting less pressure on the system, that could lead us to review the measures. But if we continue to see a lot of pressure, that the cases require a lot of care, then that will justify more draconian measures.
Marie-Pascale Pomey, professor at the School of Public Health of the University of Montreal
“What is certain is that you have to get the right time quickly,” adds Marie-Pascale Pomey.
According to her, it will above all be necessary to closely monitor hospitalizations and have a very detailed portrait. “It is really in establishments where it will be necessary to be very attentive to the figures, to see the number of new hospitalizations whose cause is specifically COVID-19, but also the infections acquired in the establishments which have an impact on the severity of case. If it does not cause major complications in large numbers in the network, that is one thing, but if it weighs down, it will be another. It is therefore intensive care that must also be monitored, ”says the expert.
“Either a door of salvation, or a catastrophe”
The epidemiologist Nimâ Machouf also agrees. “Right now, all we have left as data are hospitalizations, intensive care and deaths, but these are all indicators that give information a day late. At this point, we really have to go with common sense, in my opinion, ”she raises.
Quebec will have an “important decision to make” in the coming weeks, supports Mr.me Machouf. “We must not be mistaken, because it can either be a door of salvation, or disaster. But we have to decide whether to let Omicron run or not. That means: are we removing all barrier measures, keeping a strict minimum, allowing people to become infected? Whatever the choice, you have to be consistent to maintain membership, which the government is not currently, ”she notes.
Mme Machouf concludes by recalling that the pace with which the Omicron wave quickly struck but also quickly faded in South Africa is “encouraging” to say the least. “The conditions are not the same there, especially the much lower vaccination rate, but if we refer to it, we can still think that the fifth wave will fade more quickly in Quebec. ”
With Pierre-André Normandin, Press
Call to all: the consequences of load shedding
Are you or your loved ones waiting for examinations or postponed treatment because of the load shedding in the health network? Write to us, we would like to contact you.