The Lebanese movement “has no interest in a total war”, analyses specialist Bertrand Badie

For the international relations specialist, Hezbollah “gives the impression of being the master of the game” but in fact only aims to “maintain a situation of uncertainty”.

Lebanese Hezbollah has announced that it has launched “a large-scale attack” involving hundreds of drones and rockets against military targets in Israel, in response to the assassination of one of its leaders.

“Hezbollah has no interest in an all-out war, but Nor can it let things happen when one of its leaders is killed by the Israeli army.”analyzes Bertrand Badie, specialist in international relations and professor emeritus of universities at Sciences Po Paris, invited this Sunday on franceinfo. According to him, the Lebanese movement is developing a “new strategy”in alliance with Iran, which consists of “maintain a situation of uncertainty”.

franceinfo: Do ​​the attacks by Lebanese Hezbollah raise fears of a regional escalation of the conflict with Israel? ?

Bertrand Badie: Hezbollah has no interest in a total war. The Lebanese movement would have a lot to lose in a country that it controls almost institutionally today. The status quo is favorable to it and, at the same time, Hezbollah cannot let things happen when one of its leaders is killed, assassinated, by the Israeli army. So we have been seeing, for some time, this new strategy which is to maintain a situation of uncertainty.

What does Hezbollah have to gain from this?

There is a form of concern that is palpable. By playing this game, which could last for weeks, Hezbollah spares itself the risk of a military confrontation with Israel that could be disastrous for it and at the same time, it gives the impression of having control over this situation. It seems to build its regional game in harmony with other partners in the region.

“It is highly profitable for Hezbollah, which gives the impression of being the master of the game. It is the one that decides when to increase the pressure and attention or not. We do not know at what moment or in what form this may occur.”

Bertrand Badie

to franceinfo

There is no coordinated operation between Iran and Hezbollah yet ?

The fact that Iran is not a party to today’s attack does not mean that there is no consultation between Tehran and the leaders of the Lebanese Shiite movement. Above all, we are not on the same level. What an organization that is not a state can afford to do, a state cannot afford to do. If there is an Iranian reaction, it will be of a different nature. Furthermore, we must not exaggerate this mechanical link between Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic of Iran. They each have their interests, they each have their game, and they may even have an interest in dissociating their game and the way in which they express their responses. But indeed, they cannot remain powerless and I think that this game of calculated uncertainty is perhaps the optimum of what these different actors on the regional scene in the Middle East can do.