An assassination attempt targeting Republican Donald Trump, the sudden withdrawal of Democratic President Joe Biden in favor of his vice-president, Kamala Harris, less than 75 days before the American elections… Shock surprises are multiplying in the United States, heralding an election campaign that is anything but ordinary.
But whoever wins, one fact remains: in 2025, the world’s leading power will be led by Trump or Harris, and the new White House occupant will have to conduct foreign policy in a highly tense international context. Who would be best suited to meet the challenges ahead? International relations specialist Charles-Philippe David has published an informative new essay, The eagle in danger?in which he explains why the United States is today at “a crossroads” facing geopolitical challenges that are unprecedented for the nations of the planet.
“Yes, I think these elections are crucial for the whole world, because in addition to having immense consequences on the future of international relations, they put in the spotlight an approach to foreign policy that is diametrically opposed between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris,” he said in an interview with Duty Charles-Philippe David, president of the United States Observatory and founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair at UQAM.
So how would the two candidates react to the upheavals in the world? asks the specialist. International relations are indeed undermined by a multitude of clashes involving nations with nuclear weapons. “There is the war in Ukraine that is now spreading to Russian territory, the increasingly violent tensions in Asia between China and Taiwan and the deadly bombings that Israel is carrying out in Gaza. For each of these conflicts, there is a risk of serious escalation, the consequences of which could prove tragic for the future of humanity,” he says.
Isolationist forces versus internationalist forces
In terms of foreign policy, there are still many uncertainties between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, at a time when Washington is more fragile than ever on the diplomatic scene, the specialist mentions. “In the last eight years alone, the world has changed radically, with an unequivocal decline in international relations. We are witnessing significant regressions on many levels. Even the American political system has regressed!”
The future president will also face a riskier, more fragmented and more hostile environment than before, says the specialist. In this regard, he notes a resumption of fierce competition between the great powers, a worsening of trade disputes and a weakening of democracy in all four corners of the planet. “We are witnessing an unprecedented democratic recession, with a return to authoritarianism in the background.”
The author says he began writing his essay while Joe Biden was still in the race. The campaign has accelerated since the president gave way to Kamala Harris, who was officially sworn in Thursday in Chicago at the Democratic convention.
“There is a clear continuity between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, even if we do not know precisely what program she intends to pursue internationally. But based on the record of the Biden administration, in which she participated, I think that she will probably maintain or improve a form of American leadership that the outgoing president was able to maintain as best he could.”
The fact remains that the situation risks getting worse if Donald Trump wins, believes the specialist, who points to the Republican billionaire’s first presidential term. “When he became president in 2016, we knew he was different, but we hoped he would fall into line, act in a more conventional or traditional way. Of course, we were wrong on all counts.”
The Trump administration has been marked by isolationist and populist policies that have left little room for healthy and serene diplomacy, recalls Charles-Philippe David. “It is striking to note that, since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and Trump’s arrival in the White House, the country has largely failed to strengthen a world order consistent with its values.”
Worse still, the former Republican president eroded America’s democratic institutions and battered his European allies, he adds. “He succeeded in undermining the political climate in his country by fostering an increasingly radical wing within the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives.”
The specialist indicates that the hyperpolarization of American domestic politics initiated by Trump continues to have effects even in the foreign policy of the United States. “It is now subordinated to the interests and objectives of domestic politics. We saw it in February with the financial aid for Ukraine, which the Republicans threatened to block if it did not include a clear hardening of the migration policy in the face of the arrivals of migrants at the border with Mexico.”
According to the author, Biden has tried to somewhat restore the image of the United States during his term, particularly on the Ukraine issue. “His unwavering support for Kiev amidst rhetoric about the freedom of a people in the face of tyranny has, however, been tainted by his support for Israel in its war against Hamas and its failure to impose a ceasefire.”
Charles-Philippe David admits that the American eagle has lost feathers, its reputation is undermined internationally, particularly in countries of the South, which are increasingly resistant to US policies. “The departure of American troops from Afghanistan in 2021 has also tarnished the image of the United States on the international scene. This botched withdrawal had been concluded by Donald Trump, only to be completed by Joe Biden. It was done in a disastrous way with catastrophic effects on the country’s reputation.”
Washington can no longer dictate and manage the international order as it did after the end of the Cold War. Its role is now being challenged by authoritarian regimes, such as China or Russia, says the author. “The United States nevertheless remains indispensable since it possesses the most important military defense system on Earth. But for how much longer? China is increasing its armed forces at a dazzling rate, and that is worrying.”