Caught off guard by a bold offensive that allowed Ukraine to seize hundreds of square kilometers of Russian territory, the Kremlin has been keeping a low profile so far, avoiding any major threatening outbursts.
In his style of downplaying bad news, Vladimir Putin sees the largest foreign military incursion on Russian soil since World War II as a mere “development.”
“This is his usual reaction in such circumstances: he disappears until the situation calms down, then acts as if everything is normal,” explains expert Ekaterina Schulmann.
Having been in retreat for months in the face of the advance of Russian troops in the east of its territory, Ukraine took the fight to Russia on August 6 with an offensive of unprecedented scale and still ongoing against the border region of Kursk.
Faced with the surprise attack, the Russian president reserved his harshest comments for an unlikely audience: three mothers who lost children in the 2004 Beslan school massacre in the North Caucasus.
“These enemies […] “continue their work in trying to undermine our country,” he said this week during a commemorative visit.
Comparing the Ukrainian incursion to the Islamist terrorism that had brought mourning to Beslan and shocked Russia, he promised to “defeat these criminals.”
Usual ups and downs
Assuring that it had seized nearly one hundred localities and more than 1250 km2 On Russian territory, Ukraine says it hopes its offensive will reverse the course of the war and force Russia to negotiate to accommodate the weariness of its population.
The reality, experts say, may be very different.
Since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has no longer tolerated any criticism.
Accustomed to the ups and downs of conflict, the Russians, these experts explain, will not be discouraged by the loss of border villages, even if it were to last weeks or even months.
“Yes, it is painful, you can see it in the reactions” of officials, says Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
“There is a difference […] “There is a difference between the loss of Russian territory and the loss of conquered territory,” he admits. But “I don’t think that for the Russian elite or population, this kind of failure is important news.”
Militarily, Russia currently has few options.
“Putin will not bomb the Kursk region as he bombed Bakhmut,” a Ukrainian city captured by Russia in the spring of 2023 after months of intense bombing and at the cost of heavy losses, says analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.
It is difficult to say how long the Ukrainians will be able to hold the conquered ground, but it is likely that their incursion into Russian territory will last “months,” she adds.
Moscow has a “chance” to retake its lost territories but it “will take time”, Mr. Gabuev adds.
Russia is preparing its response, according to experts, who point out that Vladimir Putin does not like to rush before responding.
“We will know sooner or later how Putin will take revenge,” Gabuev said.
Hope for talks
State television coverage has so far focused on the humanitarian angle: the displaced population of the Kursk region and the volunteers helping them.
Anger over the ease with which Ukrainian troops entered Russian territory and the slowness of the government’s response has, by contrast, remained contained and largely confined to affected families, Gabuev observes.
Russia’s border regions, he said, are statistically the most favorable to Russian invasion and are unlikely to turn against the Kremlin.
As for Moscow, the shock is quickly fading after two and a half years of continuous roller coaster riding.
“It’s not felt on a national scale and is simply seen as an aspect of the war,” notes M.me Stanovaya.
But experts say they see signs that support for peace negotiations is growing.
“In the surveys conducted over the last six months, we see a paradoxical situation. Respondents say at the same time: ‘We support everything, the special military operation (the official name of the war) was justified but it must be stopped,'” notes Mr. Schulmann.
The Kursk episode has “changed nothing” in the Kremlin’s “radical position”, says Mme Stanovaïa, for whom Vladimir Putin will stop the fight “only on his terms”.