Will kyiv’s forces be able to hold the desired “buffer zone” after the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region?

After the surprise, it was time for statements. On Sunday, August 18, the 12th day of the military raid launched by Ukraine across the Russian border towards the city of Kursk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated his men, while calling for the creation of a “buffer zone” in this region. For kyiv, the mission is clear: “Destroy as much of Russia’s war potential as possible and carry out maximum counter-offensives.”

By targeting this region of Russia, Ukraine is hindering its occupier while hoping to draw Russian forces away from Donbass, where the situation has been more favorable to them for several months, as France 24 explains. As Kiev’s troops continue to advance toward Kursk, what will the contours of this “buffer zone” be? And how long could it hold out, in the face of a Russian regime that has sworn to “to drive the enemy out of the territory” ? Franceinfo looked into this new aspect of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Like the regions of Briansk and Belgorod, bordering Ukraine, that of Kursk has been for 30 months a rear base of the war of invasion launched by Russia. And who says rear base, says presence “numerous depots of weapons, ammunition and other infrastructure essential to the Russian armyGuillaume Ancel explains to franceinfo, former French army officer and writer. Ukraine has moved the war to Russian territory, this is a completely different level of pressure.”

Monday, Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed control by his forces of more than 1,250 km2 of territory and 92 localities in the Kursk Oblast, from where Russian civilians have been fleeing in their thousands since the first week of August. Should we expect further territorial gains? “They [les soldats ukrainiens] will not go to Moscow, because they have neither the order nor the means to do so”temporizes Guillaume Ancel, who describes the Ukrainian progression as “a stain that spreads as long as it is not stopped.”

For the military specialist, there is a good chance that the area invaded by kyiv (the hatched area in the map above) will soon find its limits. “The Ukrainian army surprised everyone, including itself, by advancing so easily into Russian territory, he asks. His forces are advancing in all directions, but we notice that they are not going too deep.” At its furthest, the distance between the outposts and the Ukrainian border remains around thirty kilometres.

In parallel with this incursion, the Ukrainian army destroyed three bridges over the Seym River, as reported by RFI, which allowed it to completely isolate the Glushkovo district, directly to the west of the invaded zone. “The operation seems to have been very well prepared by kyiv overall”comments Guillaume Ancel, who believes that“about 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers” are mobilized for “to disturb as much as possible” Russia on its lands.

By staying on the move, kyiv’s soldiers have managed to avoid strikes from the Russian army for the time being. “There are reports of the use of Iskander missiles on Ukrainian reconnaissance forces, which is like chasing mosquitoes with a hammer”former French colonel Michel Goya commented in a blog post on August 14. The presence of many Russian civilians also poses a serious operational problem for Moscow, whose military successes usually rely on massive use of artillery. “Bombing Ukraine, where little attention is paid to material destruction, is not the same as hitting one’s own territory”underlines to franceinfo Jérôme Pellistrandi, former general of the French army and editor-in-chief of the National Defense Review.

“If Russia bombs its cities as it did with Grozny, in Chechnya [entre 1999 et 2000]Russian public opinion could turn against Vladimir Putin.”

Jérôme Pellistrandi, former general and editor-in-chief of “Revue Défense nationale”

to franceinfo

The fact remains that over time, “It will be a difficult position for Ukraine to maintainjudges the former general. We will have to dig in to avoid artillery fire once the positions are fixed, he explains. “It will also require good ground-to-air defense, to counter Russian air attacks. And then the Ukrainians do not yet have enough F-16 planes to risk them in this area, so it is not simple.” Faced with the Ukrainian incursion on its soil, Russia remains for the moment very discreet about the reinforcements it plans to send to Kursk.

The other thorn in the boot of the Ukrainian army on Russian territory is “the battle of the image”adds Jérôme Pellistrandi. “We must ensure that the civilian population is as protected as possible, and show that Ukrainian soldiers are there as liberators rather than occupiers.”he explains. If kyiv’s forces settle in the Kursk region, “Police and civil administration problems will eventually arise”he also warns.

For Guillaume Ancel, this “buffer zone” project must be taken with a pinch of salt. “It still looks like window dressing, after a lightning and surprising operation”he believes, calling for the importance of this catch to be put into perspective. “As for the border, it is only 50 km under control, out of 1,200 km of potential front line between Ukraine and Russia or Belarus [alliée de Moscou]“he explains.

“Nevertheless, this military raid allows Ukraine to pick up cards in order to negotiate from a position of strength”notes the former officer. In the first days of the Ukrainian incursion, for example, kyiv’s soldiers took several hundred Russian prisoners of war. “It will be very useful when exchanging with captured Ukrainian soldiers, especially when you know how they are treated in Russian prisons.”he points out.

As for the redistribution of Russian forces on the front line, “the effect of the incursion is not clearly visible”notes Jérôme Pellistrandi. No significant movement from Donbass or the Dnieper Delta in southern Ukraine has been documented yet. While Ukraine may continue to lose ground in the East, it appears to be targeting other targets.

“This incursion has shown once again that the red lines drawn by Vladimir Putin [qui agite régulièrement la menace de guerre nucléaire] are not really”analyses Jérôme Pellistrandi. As a result, kyiv hopes to reassure its Western allies regarding the delivery of ever more sophisticated equipment, particularly long-range missiles, and to display new victories. a few months before the winter season. Moreover, after welcoming this breakthrough on Russian soil, Volodymyr Zelensky quickly called on his partners on the social network X, notably France, the United States and the United Kingdom, to deliver new weapons to him, arguing that“there is not[vait] “no holidays during the war”.