“It’s as if David had just gouged out Goliath’s eye,” explains former officer Guillaume Ancel.

For the first time since World War II, a regular army has entered Russian territory for several dozen kilometers. On Tuesday, August 6, Ukrainian soldiers crossed the border to launch an offensive. A week later, kyiv claimed to have taken control of 1,000 km2 of territory in the Kursk region, which serves as a rear base for Moscow’s forces to wage war in eastern Ukraine. According to calculations made by AFP using Russian data compiled by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American think tank, Ukraine has advanced 800 km2 in the region. On Tuesday, Volodymyr Zelensky assured that 74 localities in the region were held by his troops.

The Ukrainian offensive in Russia is “legitimate” and will stop if Moscow accepts a “just peace” and ends its invasion, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said Tuesday. How can we explain the rapid advance of the soldiers in one week? What will kyiv and Moscow do now? To try to answer these questions, franceinfo interviewed Guillaume Ancel, a former officer in the French army and writer.

Franceinfo: Why was the Kursk region chosen by Ukraine to conduct an offensive there?

Guillaume Ancel: The Ukrainians used previous raids by paramilitary organizations into Russia. They learned from these raids. Moreover, the Russian military leaders in Kursk probably did not have enough information about the upcoming coup to convince the general staff to react. The Russians saw signs but failed to detect the units’ preparations, which must have taken quite a long time.

So there is a total surprise effect on the Russian side?

The surprise was threefold. First, the Ukrainians went to a place where the Russians did not expect them. To do this, they had to trace the Russian defenses. In this region of Kursk, the border defense line had not been completed, partly because of corruption. The Russians had not stationed any experienced units either. A second thing surprised them: they did not expect to see equipment supplied by the West land. The very elliptical reaction of the Americans and the French shows that they gave their approval and that it was not at all a stab in the back.

“The Russians did not expect sophisticated equipment, such as Leopard 2 tanks, to arrive.”

Guillaume Ancel, former officer and specialist in defense issues

to franceinfo

Finally, the Ukrainians deployed for the first time their thousands of drones, which seemed difficult to coordinate. They did a lot of damage to the Russian forces that wanted to intervene. The Russians were therefore fooled by the Ukrainians’ preparation and penetration.

What does this incursion say about the organization of Russian military power?

For the moment, the authorities cannot really agree on who will take the lead in responding to this offensive. Vladimir Putin does not trust the military, he is wary of them. There is a sense of disarray on his side. He has made his entire society swallow the message that there would be no major repercussions from this “special operation” for the Russians.

For the population, it is really a shock: it is the first time since the Second World War that they have had a war on their territory. Moreover, and this is not insignificant, the FSB [service de renseignement russe, chargé de la sécurité intérieure] does not know how to control social networks, like traditional media. People can access testimonies of evacuees.

In your opinion, can the Ukrainian army reach the nuclear power plant in the Kursk region, which is a sensitive infrastructure in this area?

As a former military man, I think they have no specific objective, no area to conquer. They want to annoy the Russians as much as possible. The area is constantly moving, they test all directions, and if they encounter opposition, they stop immediately. Their goal is above all to look for weak points in the Russian army. They are not going to conquer Moscow! They are trying to destabilize the Russian army for as long as possible. In this sense, it is first and foremost a political operation that they are carrying out.

Were the Ukrainians surprised, for their part?

The Ukrainians did not expect such success: these raids work as long as they are carried out with speed and coordination. They estimated that after two or three days they should have withdrawn. This is the eighth day and they are still there. They are surprised by Russia’s difficulties in organizing the security of its own territory. But the operation is not sustainable in time.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if in a few days they start to fall back to avoid being faced with a steamroller.”

Guillaume Ancel

to franceinfo

The logic for kyiv is to look for new points of Russian fragility on the border between the two countries.

What will the Ukrainian authorities do after this incursion?

Their topic is whether Vladimir Putin can be overthrown by his regime, because they consider him dangerous. In the event that he is no longer in power, negotiations will take place immediately. If he is still in power, the Ukrainians will try to push for a negotiation, saying that it is in the Russian interest not to suffer further raids. Their goal is, above all, to tell the Russians: “You have an interest in stopping this war”. For Vladimir Putin, it is a danger of no longer being credible. He imposed a quasi-dictatorial regime on the Russians, in exchange for security. But now, the war in Ukraine may represent a cost for Russian society.

What exactly does Vladimir Putin have at his disposal to retaliate?

Vladimir Putin said on Monday that his response would be “merciless against Ukraine”. But it has been supposed to be for two years! He only has one weapon left, the nuclear weapon. However, the level of combat is well below the strategic level that could lead him to such a decision. If he deploys a nuclear weapon, he will have lost the war, because that will lead to a reaction from NATO. So at the moment he’s not talking about it.

Is this a turning point in the war?

For me, this is a major event in this war for three reasons. First, the Ukrainians have broken the constraint of not moving the war to Russia, even if the offensive is limited. Second, it is a skillful use of new technologies and inter-arms maneuver. Finally, while before this incursion, Ukrainian citizens were fed up, exhausted, with the impression that it was over, now, their morale is steely, as if David had just gouged out Goliath’s eye. This is the first Ukrainian victory since the recapture of the city of Kherson at the end of 2022.

“Hope has changed sides, it will give a boost to Ukrainians and the countries that support them.”

Guillaume Ancel

to franceinfo

On the other hand, it is very bad news for the morale of those who supported Russia, and Vladimir Putin is really fragile on the subject. It is an operation to destabilize Russian military power, which should be complemented by other operations. We have entered a new phase of the war.