Since August 6, Ukraine has made a historic breakthrough into Russia, causing the flight of more than 100,000 inhabitants. Never has such a foreign incursion been made into Russian territory since the Second World War. The Duty spoke with two experts to better understand the scale of this operation, which, according to kyiv, extends over nearly 1,000 km2.
Why did Ukraine attack the Kursk region?
On Tuesday, kyiv said it did not want to “annex the territories of the Kursk region.” The aim would rather be to “protect the lives” of the Ukrainian people and push Moscow to negotiate a “just peace.”
The strategy is also military. By attacking the border area where the “weakest” soldiers of the Russian army are concentrated, kyiv seems to want to force Russia to redeploy its troops in northern Ukraine, to relieve the Donbass front, says Dominique Arel, Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa. “It is clear that Ukraine’s goal is not to occupy Russia, but to force Russia to leave Ukraine in one way or another,” says Maria Popova, professor of political science at McGill University.
For Mr. Arel, it is also an “attempt to change the narrative of the war,” to show that the ” momentum ” is currently in favor of kyiv. “It is humiliating for Russia,” he says.
“I think the goal was to create maximum surprise, which they [les Ukrainiens] have absolutely succeeded in doing so, because Russia certainly did not expect this, adds M.me Popova: She has grossly underestimated Ukraine, […] and that’s what caused her to make miscalculations here.”
What is Russia’s reaction?
On Monday, Vladimir Putin promised to “expel” Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region. But since August 6, the Kremlin has had “no reaction,” Arel said. “The Russians continue to bomb Ukrainian cities. […] This is not an escalation. This is what Russia has been doing systematically for months, if not years.
The redeployment of Russian forces from the east to northern Ukraine, which kyiv had hoped for, is still awaited, although both experts report that the first suspicions of a shift in Russian forces have emerged today. “At the moment, the Russian state and the Russian army do not know how to respond. It is the element of surprise,” explains Mme Popova: The Kremlin, however, shows “no indication” of a willingness to make peace. “A week of invasion will not bring Putin to the negotiating table,” the professor assures.
Vladimir Putin also shows, at his own expense, that “when faced with a setback, he retreats,” adds the professor. The nuclear escalation, so feared by the West, did not happen, Mr. Arel also emphasizes, and kyiv managed to obtain the approval of Germany and the United States to use the weaponry previously provided in this offensive.
Is Ukraine Turning the Tide of the War?
This whole “risky” strategy is “so far crowned with success,” says Mr. Arel. But it is too early to say whether it will end in victory, both experts agree.
Russian forces do not appear to be “in their best shape,” and kyiv has “demonstrated that Russia’s military strength is somewhat of a myth.” However, it cannot yet be said that the Kremlin’s army is “collapsing.” Most of the soldiers in the Kursk region are young conscripts, who are not supposed to be at the front. They could, in the coming days, be helped by seasoned soldiers who have been fighting in Donbass so far.
It is also unclear how long Ukrainian forces will be able to stay in the territory they currently control, Arel said. Will they be able to “dig trenches, and therefore move the front line completely inside Russia”? “If the military objective was, among other things, to force a redeployment, that would necessarily imply a medium- to long-term presence on the part of Ukrainian troops. Whether the Ukrainians will have this capacity is what we will have to monitor, but it could take weeks before all this becomes clearer.”
What will the consequences be within Russia?
What seems certain, according to experts, is that Vladimir Putin’s regime is not threatened for the moment. “The regime will remain as long as there is no perception, and this is certainly not the case at the moment, that Russia is losing the war,” says Mr. Arel, who notes, however, that the involvement of conscripts on this front is a “very sensitive” subject that could cause waves.
For its part, the evacuated Russian population “does not expect its government to protect it,” stresses M.me Popova, who therefore does not foresee a “major shift in Russian public opinion in any direction.”
With Agence France-Presse