X-ray | Brilliant, efficient, brutal

Suspected of being the “mastermind” of the October 7 attacks, Yahya Sinouar became the new leader of Hamas on Tuesday. What difference does that make?

Why are we talking about it?

Yahya Sinouar became the new head of Hamas’ political bureau on Tuesday and, at the same time, officially the number one of this Palestinian resistance movement. This appointment comes after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the previous head of the organization, who lived in exile in Qatar and was killed in Iran on July 31 in an explosion blamed on Israel. Symbolically, the image is strong: listed by the United States as an “international terrorist,” Yahya Sinouar is considered the “mastermind” of the October 7 attacks in Israel and is the subject of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.

A violent journey

Hidden for nine months in the tunnels of Gaza, Yahya Sinouar is considered a radical figure in the movement. Unlike his predecessors, who were more focused on communication and stating political positions, Sinouar has always been involved in the armed struggle. A member of Hamas since its creation in the late 1980s, he created one of the movement’s first security services and languished in Israeli prisons for 20 years for the murder of four Palestinians suspected of “collaboration.” He also took advantage of his captivity to write an autobiographical novel. He was released in 2011 in a historic prisoner exchange. “He is seen as brilliant, efficient and brutal,” summarizes Rex Brynen, professor of political science at McGill University.

He decided, he leads

Hamas says the choice of Mr Sinwar is a “message of defiance” to Israel, which has also placed him at the top of its list of men to kill. “They killed Haniyeh, the flexible man open to solutions. Now they have to face Sinwar and the military leaders,” a senior member of the Palestinian organisation told the BBC. For Jérôme Drevon, a jihad specialist and member of the International Crisis Group, this nomination shows above all that Hamas wants to follow its logic through to the end, by giving the keys to the movement to the man who organised the attacks of 7 October. “There may be an indirect message from the political bureau which is to say: Sinwar decided on this war and he is now leading it as the head of the movement; he is taking responsibility, he is the one who will pay the price if there is a price to pay at the end of the conflict in Gaza.”

What direction for Hamas?

With Yahya Sinwar as head of the political bureau, Hamas’s decision-making center is moving to Gaza for good. But as Rex Brynan points out, “this was already the case before,” since Sinwar had veto power over the hostage and ceasefire negotiations that were led by his predecessor. According to the expert, this should not “substantially” change the trajectory of the movement, since it also operates “in a consultative manner.” While it is difficult to know Sinwar’s current views, Brynen suggests that the longtime activist may be “less willing to compromise” on the two-state or one-state solution (Israel’s disappearance).

The hope of negotiations

Sinwar’s appointment comes at a time of regional instability. Fears are high that the war could escalate into a broader regional war, with Iran vowing revenge on Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh and Lebanon’s Hezbollah threatening to retaliate after Israel killed one of its top commanders in an airstrike in Beirut. American, Egyptian and Qatari mediators are still trying to salvage negotiations on a ceasefire and hostage release deal, which could resume on August 15 in Cairo or Doha, if no major incidents or events occur by then. Sinwar has reportedly expressed openness to ending the crisis, but under what conditions?

And after?

Negotiations or not, the future of the new Hamas leader remains very precarious. The Palestinian movement will emerge weakened from the conflict, while Israel has sworn to eliminate Mr. Sinwar. “To what extent can he become a great leader?” wonders Jérôme Drevon. “He will be forced to stay in the tunnels for the rest of his life. In addition, it is possible that he will not come out of this conflict alive. We must not be naive. If the war were to end, his chances of survival are not 100% either…”

Sources: Agence France-Presse, BBC, Tea Times of IsraelAmnesty International