In this time of celebration and Olympic pause, we can appreciate the best that humanity offers in times of peace. However, November 5, the day of the American presidential election, represents a decisive date for the future of the entire world.
This will be the result of a real societal choice between two options that will have an impact on all of humanity given the economic and military power of the United States. Seen from Canada and Quebec, the main challenge will be to preserve American democracy and world peace.
We now know the two teams that will face off in the presidential election. For the Republican Party, Donald Trump has chosen JD Vance as his vice-presidential running mate, while the Democratic Party is running with Kamala Harris, the first black woman of Asian origin to run for president, and Tim Walz, current governor of the state of Minnesota, as his vice-presidential running mate.
The speeches and personalities of each could not be more opposed. Who will win this duel of titans? What choice will American voters make? If Donald Trump is elected, we can expect an era of global insecurity that will weaken the Western bloc in the face of Russia and China. On the other hand, if Kamala Harris is elected with a majority of Democratic senators and representatives in Congress, we can hope for a stabilization and consolidation of world peace.
The female vote will be strategically decisive on election day. A Supreme Court ruling authorizing a total or partial ban on abortion at the discretion of each state will spark a mobilization of the female electorate.
The religious lobby will of course oppose women’s free choice regarding pregnancy terminations, a battle that Vice President Kamala Harris, also a former attorney general of California, has been able to defend tooth and nail during her current term. An issue that will certainly divide American public opinion.
The Republican program is unequivocal: deport 15 to 20 million illegal immigrants and build a waterproof wall on the southern border of the United States. What would be the impact of this policy in Canada and Quebec? Would many immigrants choose to cross our border?
War
Supporting wars between Israel and Hamas or between Ukraine and Russia is costly to the US Treasury, so the “Trumpist” solution would be to cut military spending to negotiate a peace favorable to Russia and to reduce its support for NATO.
Will Kamala Harris propose to further support Ukraine, even if it means using the $300 billion in Russian funds frozen since the invasion of its territory? Will Russia and China interfere in the presidential debate by supporting disinformation campaigns on social networks?
Finally, Donald Trump’s announcement that he will not recognize the results of the presidential election if he loses the election will create a climate of insecurity for American democracy. What measures will Kamala Harris take to avoid a slip-up like the storming of the Capitol during the last election?
Will Donald Trump incite his supporters to contest the election again? Will the US Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) be controlled by Republicans or Democrats in the majority?
The global stakes of the American election will have an economic and political impact in Canada and Quebec. Let us closely monitor foreign interference in order to protect ourselves from it during the next federal elections in Canada, scheduled for 2025.