As we approach November 5, the presidential election in the United States sometimes seems unpredictable. Yet there are some geographic keys that allow us to identify trends at the state level, while speculation is rife: Which electoral blocs will swing the country one way or the other?
In the shadow of their states, it is actually a handful of counties, representing 5 million of the 161 million registered voters, that could make or break the presidency. In this microscopic electoral world that will have an immense impact on the overall winner, these are six counties to watch, because they will chart the path to the White House.
Maricopa (Arizona)
Maricopa County, which covers the greater Phoenix area, is a multicultural territory, where ethnic tensions foreshadow the electoral battles to come. Although Arizona has only 15 counties (one of the fewest in the country), Maricopa is home to 4.6 million people. It is therefore the state’s anchor county, its largest, and therefore the key to Arizona’s 11 electoral votes.
Joe Biden won it in 2020, Hillary Clinton lost it in 2016: it is indeed a pivotal county and the heart of the state, as much for Democrats as for Republicans. Emerson College, one of the most reputable polling companies in the United States, puts Donald J. Trump in the lead… for now.
Washoe (Nevada)
In the state of Nevada, Washoe County, which includes the city of Reno, is the second-largest county, and it will determine who will vote for the state’s six electoral votes. Ideologically divided, it has almost as many independents as Democrats, while Republicans represent 32% of registered voters. It is therefore the ideal place to swing the vote in favor of one candidate or another. Long Republican, it only fell to the Democratic camp in 2008, and with it the rest of the state (with the exception of the 1992 and 1996 elections, when Ross Perot’s third party came to muddy the waters).
Gwinnett (Georgia)
In a state as divided as Georgia, it’s not the cities or rural areas that make the difference, but the suburbs. The crown of the state’s largest city, Atlanta, is crucial, especially Gwinnett County. With 960,000 residents, it’s crucial because of its size, but also because it’s one of the most divided. It’s only been won by Democrats in the last two elections.
According to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, the two presidential candidates are tied in the state. While Fulton, Cobb and DeKalb counties, in Atlanta’s suburbs, carry significant weight, Gwinnett is the most decisive: if it falls into Republican hands, Harris’ chances of winning in Georgia are virtually nil (such a possibility has only materialized for Democrats twice in 50 years, in 1980 and 1992).
Erie (Pennsylvania)
Erie County, Pennsylvania, is atypical: it is neither the most populated nor the most urban. This territory of 264,000 inhabitants (a little more than the population of Longueuil) swings according to the elections, and with it the entire state. It is decisive since Pennsylvania has been fiercely contested since 2016.
By losing Erie, Hillary Clinton failed to win Pennsylvania, which hurt her chances of winning the presidency. Erie is therefore a real swing county, partly because the margins there are extremely thin and partly because when a candidate wins it, since the 1988 presidential election, he or she generally wins the state.
Kent (Michigan)
Kent County, with its seat in Grand Rapids, is often overshadowed by its imposing neighbor, Detroit. The county, which has voted Democratic only twice since 1964, is the Republicans’ Achilles heel. Demographic changes are rapid because of the growing weight of various ethnic minorities, but the vote of educated whites continues to carry heavy weight and tips the balance.
Because of their large population in this county, it generally votes Democratic. But in 2012 and 2016, it went Republican by a very narrow margin, while Biden won it in 2020 by a six-point margin. Kent’s result should be a harbinger of where Michigan’s 15 electoral votes will go.
Dane (Wisconsin)
Dane County, Wisconsin, is undivided: a Democratic stronghold, it is almost certain to vote for the Harris camp. — the party usually gets a score of more than 50%. But the turnout, particularly in Madison, the state’s capital and second city, located in Dane County, is a key to this swing state.
Given that Wisconsin was won by Biden by just 20,000 votes, it’s understandable that the 260,000 votes cast in the county in 2020, 43,000 more than in 2016, are crucial. It’s not enough for Democrats to win the county, they have to win it by a wide margin. The tipping point will be young people, who make up over 50.4% of Dane’s population, thanks in part to the large University of Wisconsin, which is based in Madison.
Obviously, the analysis cannot be limited to these six counties, especially if the election is close, even closer than usual, either in number of votes or in number of electors. However, these are six trend indicators to watch in this chess game where every piece counts.