(Beirut) Following the strikes against Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran and its allied groups in the Middle East are working on a coordinated response against Israel, but their response should remain measured with the aim of avoiding a regional conflagration, analysts believe.
On Wednesday, a meeting was held in Tehran between Iranian officials and representatives of their allied groups to coordinate their positions, according to a source close to Lebanese Hezbollah who was informed of the meeting and who requested anonymity.
“Two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and its allies or a staggered response from each party,” the source added.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed Wednesday to inflict “severe punishment” on Israel, which it accused of killing Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran that same day.
PHOTO VAHID SALEMI, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Israel is accused of killing Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah announced on Thursday afternoon that his group’s response against Israel was “inevitable.”
“Israel does not know which red lines it has crossed,” he warned in a speech at the funeral of Fouad Chokr, the military leader of his party responsible for the front with Israel, killed in a strike on the suburbs of Beirut on Tuesday evening.
Hamas has also vowed to avenge its leader. The Palestinians “will pursue Israel until it is uprooted from the land of Palestine,” warned a senior member of the Palestinian group, Khalil al-Hayya, at Haniyeh’s funeral in Tehran on Thursday.
Tactical coordination
“It is very likely that the response will be coordinated [..] “among the resistance actors,” says analyst Amal Saad, an expert on Hezbollah.
“What has happened will allow for a considerable strengthening of tactical coordination between Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad,” she lists.
Iran’s allies including Hamas and Hezbollah are being brought together by Iran in what it calls the “axis of resistance” against Israel.
In Iraq, a leader of the Islamic Resistance, a nebulous group of pro-Iranian Iraqi movements, told AFP that the most likely option would be “for Iran to launch, with formations from Iraq, Yemen and Syria, a response against Israeli military targets.”
According to the official, who requested anonymity, “Hezbollah could then strike civilian targets” in response to the strike targeting its military leader in which five civilians were also killed.
In recent months, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” has claimed to have targeted Israel with drone and rocket strikes.
For their part, the Houthi rebels have been carrying out attacks since November against ships presented as linked to Israel off the coast of Yemen, in “support” of the Palestinians in the war in the Gaza Strip, and have also fired missiles against Israeli towns.
No war?
At the same time, the response from Iran and its proxies should remain measured so as not to provoke a regional war that they want to avoid, analysts say.
“Iran and Hezbollah will not want to play Netanyahu’s game and give him the bait or the pretexts he needs to drag the United States into a war,” Saad said.
“They will try to avoid a war while strongly deterring Israel,” she adds.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday called on “all parties” in the Middle East to de-escalate to avoid a conflagration.
PHOTO RENTSENDORJ BAZARSUKH, REUTERS
Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State
For political scientist and international affairs expert Ahmad Zeidabadi, “a stronger response is expected” from Iran than during its April 13 strike.
Iran then launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israeli territory in retaliation for a strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1er April, attributed to Israel.
But he had taken care to warn the United States before this response, essentially through the Swiss embassy in Tehran.
“A repeat of the previous operation will not make much sense, because the missiles and drones did not hit sensitive areas and did not have a deterrent effect,” the Iranian expert explains.
However, he rules out the possibility of a “generalized, total and uncontrollable war.”
“The only thing that matters to Iran is the survival of the regime, just like Hezbollah,” says Rodger Shanahan, a Middle East analyst.
“Iran will exert strong pressure on the Israelis on behalf of the Palestinians, but it will not risk an existential threat.”