In the past 24 hours, Israel has carried out two targeted assassinations outside its borders in quick succession. At 7:40 p.m. (local time), an explosion rang out in a building in the southern suburbs of Beirut, where Fouad Chokr, a senior military commander of Lebanese Hezbollah since the 1980s, was staying.
Although the Shiite armed group initially said Shokr had survived, the Israeli military claimed hours later that the man had been killed, a claim later confirmed by Hezbollah. The Jewish state said it carried out the operation in retaliation for a missile attack attributed to Hezbollah on a Druze village in the Golan Heights that killed 12 children last Saturday.
“Since October 7, Israel and Hezbollah have been waging a limited war and do not want a total war,” explains Sami Aoun, director of the Raoul Dandurand Chair Observatory on the Middle East and North Africa, associated with the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM). “What happened this week changes the rules. Now, we have to see how Hezbollah will respond. We will know in the coming days.”
The Israeli strike on Beirut was followed by the assassination on Wednesday, around 2 a.m. (local time), of Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas’ political wing, in his residence in the Iranian capital, Tehran. Hamas attributed his death to an airstrike carried out by Israel, which has not yet commented.
Targeted assassinations are frequently used by Israel. The Jewish state is suspected of being involved in the deaths of five Iranian scientists between 2010 and 2020. More recently, on January 2, Hamas’ number two, Saleh al-Arouri, was assassinated by an airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its responsibility for this operation.
“It’s not an effective method, because it only further antagonizes Israel’s adversaries,” explains Rachad Antonius, associate professor in the Department of Sociology at UQAM. “It shows that Israel has chosen total confrontation and does not want to negotiate. It’s a genocidal policy, characterized by targeted assassinations and the total expulsion of Palestinians from the territory.”
Total war unlikely
Despite these dramatic events of recent days, an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah remains unlikely, according to Sami Aoun, who instead expects a limited escalation on the part of both sides.
“A ground campaign in Lebanon would be very risky for Israel. Not only is Hezbollah well prepared for ambushes, but Lebanon’s geography includes valleys, mountains and a network of tunnels more extensive than Gaza’s. The Israeli army would find itself caught in a guerrilla war that would be very costly,” he explains. In addition, several major Israeli cities, such as Haifa and Tel Aviv, would be within range of Hezbollah’s artillery.
Finally, “neither the American nor the Iranian godfather have an interest in an open war. Iran has elected a new reformist president who wants a diplomatic rapprochement with Washington. For his part, Joe Biden knows very well that an open war would harm the Democratic Party’s chances in the November elections, and the Iranians do not want Trump to return to the White House either,” adds Mr. Aoun.
Concerns within the Lebanese diaspora
The Lebanese community in Montreal is following these events with concern, but without really believing in the possibility of total war.
“We are very worried, but life must go on. We must continue to go see our families in Lebanon, but it is difficult to always have to take into account last-minute flight cancellations,” says Lamia Charlebois, who has lived in Montreal for about thirty years.
The woman who has returned to Lebanon twice since the start of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah last October says she is impressed by the strength of character of the Lebanese people. “Life goes on, there is no other choice, but it is insecure,” she says. Lamia Charlebois, who was in Lebanon during the last major war in 2006, remembers having to leave the country via Syria. “An option that is much more difficult today,” she adds.
For her part, Lebanese-Quebec filmmaker Maryanne Zéhil is hopeful that the current crisis will not degenerate into open war like in 2006. “Since I was born, the situation has always been like this in the Middle East, with tensions coming and going. But it’s a terrible situation, because it could change at any moment.”
Mme Zehil reports, just like Mme Charlebois, of the resilience of the Lebanese population. “When there was the strike that killed the leader of Hezbollah, there was an open-air concert in Beirut. People heard the explosion, but they continued to sing and dance. In Lebanon, we continue to live forever, until we no longer have the choice to evacuate,” she explains.
The filmmaker denounces, however, that Lebanon serves as a battlefield between the great powers. “It is not Lebanon that decides anything, we are subject to the decisions of international powers, like Iran, Israel and the United States,” she deplores. Lamia Charlebois echoes the same sentiment: “We are caught in a sandwich in wars that we do not want to wage. Our country is already in bad shape, we do not need this war.”