Israel toughens its stance on Hezbollah

The Israeli Prime Minister has promised a “severe response” to the attack attributed to Hezbollah that occurred on Saturday, in which 12 children died. Since then, airlines have notably suspended their flights to Beirut. Some elements to better understand the fear of a new conflagration on the Lebanese-Israeli border.

What’s happening on the border between Israel and Lebanon?

Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, when 1,197 people were killed and 251 kidnapped, the Israeli army has been waging a war in the Gaza Strip. The death toll on the Palestinian side stands at more than 39,300, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.

But this is not the only front: the Islamist movement Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Israeli army have been exchanging cross-border fire almost daily since October 8.

The clashes left at least 523 dead in Lebanon, mostly fighters, according to a report by Agence France-Presse. At least 22 soldiers and 24 civilians were killed on the Israeli side, according to the country’s authorities.

Tens of thousands of people in northern Israel and southern Lebanon have been displaced.

Why these clashes?

On both sides of the border, the shootings are justified as responses and counter-responses, raising fears that the spiral will intensify.

“Hezbollah is citing the war in the Gaza Strip to justify its actions,” says Houchang Hassan-Yari, professor emeritus at the Royal Military College of Canada. A pretext, according to him, to launch a new offensive against Israel. Since its creation in the 1980s, Hezbollah has called for the destruction of the country, he recalls.

Hezbollah and Hamas are both supported by Iran. Both organizations are listed as terrorist entities in Canada, but play a major role in their respective territories. In addition to their military wing, they are also political parties.

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), which analyzes satellite imagery, there were 7,491 cross-border attacks between October 8 and July 5. Israel carried out about five times as many strikes as Hezbollah.

What happened on Saturday?

A rocket fired from Lebanon killed 12 children aged 10 to 16 in Majdal Shams, in the occupied Golan. This Syrian plateau, strategic for water supplies, was annexed by Israel in 1981, in a move not recognized by the international community.

The Israeli government therefore considers this to be an attack on civilians on its territory.

The projectile hit a soccer field. About thirty people were also injured.

The attack shook the residents of Majdal Shams, who belong to the Druze community. This ethno-religious minority from Islam is present in Israel, but also in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan.

Why this target?

It could be an error, due to the inaccuracy of the device. “My understanding, reading the reports of the event and those of Israeli security analysts, is that it was actually an Israeli army base nearby that was the target,” says Brian Katulis of the Middle East Institute.

Before the rocket hit Majdal Shams, four Hezbollah members had been killed in Lebanon, targeted by the Israeli army.

Hezbollah has denied being behind Saturday’s attack — a movement that usually claims responsibility. But Israeli and American officials, as well as experts, say it is not in doubt. The projectile has been identified as a type of Iranian rocket that it is believed to be the only one to possess in the region.

Why does this particular attack pose a new risk of conflagration?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Majdal Shams on Monday and promised a strong response.

French President Emmanuel Macron has spoken with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who warned of the risks of a “serious mistake with serious consequences” if Israel attacks Lebanon.

The tone and words used raise fears of an escalation.

“I think this is a critical moment where things could degenerate into a very negative scenario at any moment,” Katulis said. “It seems that Israel is prepared to go further than it has in recent weeks and months.”

Could Israel launch a ground offensive?

Mr. Katulis does not believe that a ground offensive in Lebanon is likely at this stage. Targeted raids would be more likely, he said.

Mr. Hassan-Yari has no doubts about Israel’s military capabilities, despite its presence in the Gaza Strip. But while he believes that “a total war with Hezbollah is inevitable” one day or another, he believes that it would be “devastating,” particularly for the Lebanese population.

In a statement, the Lebanese government “called for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts.”

Many governments, including the United States, have called for de-escalation, while several airlines suspended flights to Beirut on Monday.

With Agence France-Presse and the BBC