There is an English expression that says that “a leopard cannot change its skin.” This applies particularly well to Donald Trump.
It’s one of the big questions of this election campaign: Will he be able to adapt? While he’s been gearing up to campaign against Joe Biden, will the style of campaigning he’s been practicing for nearly a decade still be effective against Kamala Harris?
This could be decisive since Mr. Trump is the victim of a “glass ceiling” phenomenon. He has never managed, in polls or in elections, to reach the 50% of the vote that makes a victory indisputable. And the first Trump-Harris polls show that he still has not managed to break this ceiling.
Trump’s style is now well known: insulting his opponent, questioning his competence, if not his intelligence. It is therefore not surprising that in an interview on Fox News this week, he accused Kamala Harris of being “a real piece of trash,” “much worse than Joe Biden” and “the most radical person who has ever held” the vice presidency.
But at the same time, Mr. Trump says he is not sure he wants to debate Mr.me Harris on September 10, as agreed with President Biden.
This indicates that he was not ready and, above all, that he never believed that Joe Biden would leave the race and, even less, that the Democratic Party would reunite so quickly around the vice president.
PHOTO KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE ARCHIVES
Kamala Harris speaking in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on July 23
And he also seems unprepared for his opponent to be so quick to counterattack.
This was Hillary Clinton’s big mistake eight years ago, during the 2016 election campaign: she never responded directly to Donald Trump’s attacks, probably telling herself, like Talleyrand, that “everything that is excessive is insignificant.”
But Mr Trump had cleverly banked on a dubious decision by Mrme Clinton, who had kept his official emails on a private server. He suggested that this might be a criminal offense. The FBI instead concluded that it was negligence, but that it did not merit criminal charges.
A conclusion that did not prevent Republican supporters from chanting “Lock her up!” at Mr. Trump’s rallies.
This time, it is the Democrats chanting “Lock him up,” in reference to the 34 guilty verdicts Mr. Trump has received in the case of falsifying accounting records to cover payments to a porn star with whom he had an affair — something he still denies, by the way.
The major difference between the two campaigns for the former president is that his opponent, this time, will respond. Mme Harris was attorney general of California and, before that, she was the chief prosecutor of the San Francisco district. And, in this election campaign, she wants to be the prosecutor again.
A few days ago, at a town hall in Wisconsin, she said: “As a prosecutor, I have fought predators who abuse women, fraudsters who abuse consumers, and all kinds of cheaters who don’t follow the law, believe me, I know individuals like Donald Trump.”
This is an unprecedented situation for the former president. He is used to attacking without having to defend himself too much. But his exaggerations could well backfire on him.
For example, he began attacking Kamala Harris on the issue of abortion, accusing her of wanting to “kill babies” by twisting the words of a Democratic governor about rare cases of abortion after 32 weeks of pregnancy.
But the abortion issue has become toxic for Republicans since the U.S. Supreme Court — well-stocked with conservative justices thanks to Donald Trump’s appointments — overturned precedent and allowed states to ban abortion.
Mr Trump wants to make that decision solely up to states rather than the federal government, but it is worth noting that Democrats have performed better than expected in every election since the judges’ decision.
In this context, Mr Trump’s attacks will only consolidate the vote he already has, without allowing him to make any gains.
But what best shows the Republicans’ dismay is this new line of attack according to which Joe Biden was the victim of a kind of coup d’état and forced by his own party to step down. According to a poll published in recent days, no less than 87% of Americans said that Mr. Biden made the right decision in stepping down.
This campaign is, of course, far from over. But for Republicans, everything indicates that the departure of Joe Biden and the arrival of Kamala Harris will really not have the desired effects.
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