Quebec has been saying for several weeks that the decree issued by Ottawa would result in approximately 2,000 direct and indirect job losses in the forestry industry and would cause losses of $183 million in economic activity. However, this estimate is being questioned by many.
Based on Statistics Canada data, an intersectoral model and the historical consumption of raw materials in the forest industry over the past 10 years, Quebec has estimated that 1,990 direct and indirect jobs would be lost as a result of the application of the Ottawa decree. This figure does not take into account job losses in the event that the territories protected by Ottawa prove to be larger than expected. Currently, Quebec estimates the number of jobs in the forest sector at 60,000 direct jobs and 30,000 indirect jobs.
To arrive at the 2000 figure, the Chief Forester of Quebec estimated the reduction in wood production that would be caused by the application of federal measures, by assessing the forest production potential of the territories concerned. Quebec then calculated the impact on the forest industry of a reduction in potential production.
According to Quebec calculations revealed to journalists during a technical briefing on Friday, the Ottawa decree would reduce the supply of the Quebec forestry industry to 1.1 million m3 of wood per year. In 2023, Quebec’s annual forest production amounted to 29 million m3 of wood, according to data from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forests (MRNF).
“Some factories will be more affected than others”
Quebec declined to indicate which mills would be at risk of closure. “For confidentiality reasons, we will not present the details in each mill, but we know very well that some mills will be more affected than others,” said Nicolas-Pascal Côté, director of wood supply management at the MRNF. Quebec nevertheless estimates that the affected mills would suffer a reduction in their supplies ranging from 1% to 50%.
A “rough” analysis
“In our opinion, the government is making a crude analysis, where so many fewer cubic metres of wood equals so many fewer jobs,” replied the general director of Nature Québec, Alice-Anne Simard.
She adds that an independent commission set up by the Quebec government had estimated a total loss of 841 jobs, in a scenario where the measures to protect the forest caribou would extend to the entire territory of Quebec.
“I find it very unfortunate that job losses are the only way the government talks to us about woodland caribou. We can create jobs by protecting caribou, we protect interesting landscapes and ecosystems, we can develop a whole section of the recreational tourism industry. These impacts are not taken into account by the government’s analysis,” concludes M.me Simard.
Although she understands the concerns of communities where the forestry industry represents a large number of jobs, the general director of Nature Québec believes that the government should help with the economic diversification of these regions, rather than “giving in to the forestry industry’s fear campaign.”
The decree adopted by the federal government on June 16 aims to protect the Pipmuacan (in Saguenay – Lac-Saint-Jean), Val-d’Or and Charlevoix woodland caribou herds. The emergency measures taken by Ottawa create “provisional zones” with a total area of approximately 1.6 million hectares. These protected areas correspond to the best habitats for the caribou and where all logging would be prohibited.
These logging ban zones could eventually be expanded to “areas of interest,” which group together the distribution areas of the forest caribou, following consultations conducted by Ottawa with the stakeholders concerned.