What will happen at this convention?
So far, it was pretty predictable. After winning more than enough delegates in the primaries held in each state, Joe Biden’s candidacy was simply going to be made official. But nothing holds up anymore. By virtue of his withdrawal of candidacy, his delegates are free to vote for whoever they want. They are not required to vote for Kamala Harris, even though she was the outgoing president’s running mate and he offered her his support. “She hasn’t won any primaries, she’s never been a candidate in 2024,” recalls Rafael Jacob, a researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair’s Observatory on the United States.
Can we then speak of an “open convention”?
In theory, yes. But in practice, that’s far from the case, says Jacob, since Harris has a head start. “If she comes to the convention with near-universal support from the party brass, it’s going to be a coronation of sorts,” he says, predicting that Joe Biden’s delegates will then rally behind her. “A lot will depend on exactly what Biden says and what the other potential candidates say or do,” adds Graham Dodds, professor of American politics at Concordia University. Dodds points out that the Democratic National Committee, which is responsible for the rules of the race, is due to hold a crucial vote in the coming weeks.
What if a credible candidate runs against Kamala Harris?
This is where things get tricky. Many may not run in the hope of presenting a united front, Dodds said. “Democrats are eager to pick a candidate who can beat Trump, and they can do it as quickly and amicably as possible,” he said. “But of course, people have different ideas about who is the best candidate, so there are bound to be real disagreements.” Some form of televised debate and local voting could be held to promote the various candidates and allow supporters to vote, he said, but that’s not certain, given the convention date is fast approaching.
Are there any precedents?
In fact, all the races for the leadership of the two major parties were open conventions before the 1972 presidential election, Jacob points out. It was then, in the wake of the tumult of the 1968 Democratic convention, that the reforms were introduced that led to the modernized system of primaries and caucuses that we know today. Since then, the 1976 Republican convention and the 1980 Democratic convention are the only two cases “where it was not certain who was going to emerge with the nomination,” he explains. “But in the last 40 years, no, that has never happened,” he says.
What Happens to Biden’s Campaign Money?
It all depends on who has the money. Depending on the New York Times, as of June 30, No less than $240 million raised by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris over the past two years had been allocated to the outgoing president’s campaign, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and various Democratic organizations. This money could simply be used to benefit the next candidate. The only exception: the $91 million that the Biden-Harris team itself held as of May 30. According to the New York daily, if Kamala Harris wants to use these funds, she can do so without any problem. She has already informed the Federal Election Commission of the change of guard at the campaign committee, which is no longer called “Biden for President” but “Harris for President”. However, if another candidate comes to represent the party, this $91 million should be returned to the donors or transferred to a political action committee (PAC) that would spend it as part of the campaign.
IMAGE TAKEN FROM THE FEDERAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION WEBSITE
The campaign committee’s name changed from “Biden for President” to “Harris for President” on Sunday.
Could the next candidate be designated before the convention?
The DNC had planned to hold a virtual roll call to nominate Joe Biden before the convention, in order to comply with Ohio’s eligibility rules. In that state, the deadline for casting ballots, where candidates’ names appear, was set for Aug. 7, before the convention. The Ohio Legislature has since approved a bill overturning that deadline, but it won’t go into effect until Aug. 1.er September, raising concerns that the Democratic Party could be sued if no nominee is nominated in time. The DNC, however, said it would not set a date for a possible virtual vote — which could take place over several days — until September 1.er august.
Is it too late for Democrats to save their campaign?
No, believes Rafael Jacob, since the opposing candidate, Donald Trump, is already “highly problematic.” But in the event that Kamala Harris is indeed the Democratic Party’s candidate, the expert points out that she is barely more popular than the incumbent president. According to several recent polls, her approval rating hovers around 40%, while the percentage of Americans who disapprove of her remains around 55%. “She is essentially more unpopular than Donald Trump is.” […] “Can she win against Trump? Yes, but she also comes in as a very vulnerable candidate,” he said, recalling that she will always be “intrinsically linked to Biden.”
With information from the Associated Press and the New York Times