The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is underway. Businesses and workers will be shaken up because of the implementation of AI, which will drastically change the way we produce and work. All sectors will be affected and some jobs will be transformed more quickly than others. For better or for worse? The newspaper interviewed players from the music, cinema, comedy, advertising, publishing, television and several other sectors.
Like it or not, progress in artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing rapidly and its consequences on work are anything but reassuring. No fewer than 4.7 million jobs, or one in four jobs in Canada, are at risk of being replaced by AI by 2030.
This forecast by McKinsey (over 400 million jobs lost worldwide) is comparable to those of other firms of the same ilk. An analysis by Goldman Sachs estimates the number of workers affected by this anticipated tidal wave at some 300 million jobs worldwide.
“As I always say, of course not all workers will be replaced by AI. But those who are not will risk being replaced by someone who has learned to use it,” says expert Bruno Guglielminetti and host of the digital news podcast My notebook.
A steamroller
The newspaper sought to understand how AI is likely to transform the lives of businesses and workers. We also compiled a list of the sectors and jobs most likely to undergo significant changes in the coming years. (see text at left)
- Listen to the interview with Francis Halin, journalist for the Money section of the Journal de Montréal, via QUB :
All sectors will be affected and some jobs will be transformed more quickly than others. The Journal interviewed players from several sectors to understand their concerns:
-in television, music, cinema, humor, advertising and even literature, artificial intelligence is shaking up habits,
-for retailers like Couche-tard, the arrival of cashierless stores has not been conclusive,
-the translation sector is transforming at the pace of advances in AI,
-in the legal community, many warnings are being issued to lawyers to ensure the healthy use of these AI tools.
This promise of increased productivity, induced by AI, is the main guarantee of its rapid adoption in organizations, public and private. Its impact will be such that analysts expect the planet’s gross domestic product (GDP) to climb by 7% per year over the next 10 years.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), nearly 40% of jobs on the planet are at risk of experiencing the effects of AI. Its impact will be even greater in more developed countries, such as Canada, where 60% of jobs will be affected.
Half of them, those whose AI will be able to reproduce tasks currently performed by humans, will suffer negative consequences, leading to a decrease in their attractiveness, a drop in hiring, a drop in salaries and eventually, the inexorable disappearance of jobs.
Exacerbated inequalities
There are concerns that current inequalities are increasing. In addition, women, those in technical jobs and those with limited digital knowledge are most at risk of suffering, warns the World Economic Forum.
The same goes for smaller businesses, notes the vice-president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, François Vincent.
He says there are great fears among them that, due to a lack of knowledge or resources, they will not be able to integrate AI as quickly as their larger competitors.
Hurry up
A specialist in business automation, Vention CEO Étienne Lacroix tries to be reassuring, emphasizing that the level of AI penetration varies greatly from one industry to another.
It is much more advanced in low value-added functions, such as customer service (Expedia), than in manufacturing, where AI has not yet reached the same level of maturity.
“In manufacturing, we are still very far from the autonomy we are looking for. Without taking anything away from what already exists, I would say that we are still really at the beginning, at a stage that I would almost still describe as academic. It will take some time before we see the replacement of jobs on a large scale.
A lot of time? How much time, exactly? With that, the expert thinks, takes a break, then gets out of it by borrowing a thought from Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft.
“Gates said that in general we tend to overestimate technological advances over a two-year horizon. But conversely, we also tend to underestimate possible advances over a 10-year horizon.”
In other words, we have, at best, 10 years to prepare.
With the collaboration of Francis Halin.