Several indicators were in the red in the spring and suggested the worst for the forest fire season in Canada. Finally, the weather has so far been rather favourable in limiting fires and we are experiencing an “average” season. For the coming months, the risk remains high in the west of the country, but low in Quebec, estimate federal government experts.
The current situation
“We’ve had some good weather. We’ve had less wildfire activity than expected and less than last year,” said Deryck Trehearne, executive director of the Government Operations Centre (GOC), during a press briefing on the subject.
Currently, there are 554 active fires in the territory. 284 require intervention, and of these, 135 are out of control. In Quebec, approximately 70 fires are active, seven of which require intervention.
In total, 1.3 million hectares have burned so far – which is close to the average for this time of year, which is 1.1 million hectares (not including 2023). By this time last year, nearly 10 million hectares had already burned.
Weather conditions of the last few months
The last 12 months have seen a precipitation deficit across the country. Temperatures were also well above normal, reaching up to +4°C in northern Nunavut.
From April to June, the country was divided between drought in the west and heavy precipitation in the east. Quebec and Nunavut also recorded above-normal temperatures.
“This portrait can mask significant events, such as the heat wave that occurred in June in the eastern part of the country,” says Sebastien Chouinard, director of Environment Canada’s Meteorological Services. “Such an event is more likely to occur because of climate change.”
The forecasts
There is a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures across Canada in the coming months – particularly in the East, Quebec and the Maritimes. Precipitation, meanwhile, could be below normal in the northern Prairies.
Due to an extended period of hot and dry weather, the risk of fire remains high in the West for July and August. “For Quebec and Ontario, there have been a lot of rain events,” says Sebastien Chouinard. “The balance between this precipitation, heat and evaporation means that the risk is quite low.”
Reduce the risk
The fire season in Canada is at its most intense in July and August, experts say.
“During this time, it is more important than ever to avoid accidentally starting fires,” said Michael Norton, Director General of the Canadian Forest Service. “Several provinces have restrictions in place to prevent this.”
In Quebec, the majority of territories located north of the 48e parallel (with the exception of the Gaspé) are currently subject to a ban by the Société de protection des forêts contre le feu (SOPFEU) on making open-air fires in or near the forest.
Air quality and international aid
So far, international assistance has not been required this year to control the fires. “The United States and Mexico are having a major wildfire season, though, so we’re monitoring that in case Canada needs to go help,” Trehearne said.
Experts also have a tool to predict the movement of smoke according to the winds, to issue advisories in regions likely to see their air quality deteriorate. Since the start of the season, the number of alerts issued is close to the average of recent years – and much lower than in 2023.