After failing to obtain an absolute majority in the Assembly following Sunday’s vote, the National Rally is trying to analyse the reasons for its results, which were up but below its objectives.
After the cold shower, it’s time to take stock. The National Rally (RN) hoped to win an absolute majority at the end of the second round of the legislative elections on Sunday, July 7, driven by its momentum from the European elections. But the results are disappointing: the 38 additional seats won (55 including those of Eric Ciotti’s troops), for a total of 143 deputies, do not allow it to govern. The party’s general staff, convinced that an absolute majority was within reach, is trying to understand how the favorable projections of the polls ended up melting away.
The day after the results, Jordan Bardella conceded for the first time “errors” in front of the media. “We always make mistakes, I have made some”said the party president, who had campaigned on his nomination to Matignon. “I take responsibility for both the victory in the European elections and yesterday’s defeat”he said on Monday. Present on Wednesday at the National Assembly to welcome the newly elected deputies, he promised to carry out a “examination of conscience”.
First lesson: too many candidates have harmed the RN campaign. The party had praised its “Matignon plan”, prepared for over a year to identify 577 quality candidates. But many aspiring MPs have made racist, xenophobic remarks, while others have shown their weaknesses during debates on the program, when they did not avoid them.
After having minimized the facts during the campaign, evoking some “black sheep”Jordan Bardella admitted that the party should “look things about the investiture of a certain number of candidates”And on Wednesday, the party leader addressed RN MPs asking them “to be perfectly irreproachable on the ground, with your media”.
Internally, the praise for the Matignon plan is now giving way to another story. Of course, the party had started to list candidates for all constituencies as early as spring 2023. But in many territories, particularly where the RN is not very well established, the examination of candidacies was clearly not exhaustive and in-depth. In addition, some candidates selected several months ago were ultimately no longer available to run, or no longer willing, at the time of the dissolution.
“Maybe some candidates weren’t ready”recognizes an RN executive, deploring a certain number of people “parachuted”. “It is better to plant candidates well in advance.” “It’s a lesson in humilityaccording to MEP Mathilde Androuët. We saw that there were some flaws. Not all the selections were successful, and we cannot go back fifteen years to the Facebook profiles of 577 candidates and their alternates and proxies.”She assures that the party will rectify the situation in the future and that the new deputies will be as many local elected representatives capable of identifying future “nuggets” to strengthen its territorial roots.
Coincidence? The RN confirmed to franceinfo on Tuesday the resignation of the movement’s general director, Gilles Pennelle, who has been responsible for investitures for several years now. “We should not overinterpret his departure, it was planned, because he was elected MEP on June 9, but the position of director general is very time-consuming”minimizes Mathilde Androuët. But an executive believes, under cover of anonymity, that this “looks like” indeed to a sanction. This announcement in any case augurs a broader reorganization of the party, with a view to avoiding repeating such recruitment errors.
Another pitfall identified by the RN: the proposal to ban certain strategic positions for people with dual nationality was a drag. “The big mistake of this campaign is the measure on dual nationals, it’s a big mistake”says a manager. The idea was not included in the 12-page program unveiled on June 24 during a press conference. It was one of the RN’s spokespersons, the deputy for the North Sébastien Chenu, who mentioned it on the TF1 set that very morning. He explained that he wanted “to prevent” French people with dual nationality to occupy “extremely sensitive jobs.”
Jordan Bardella has constantly downplayed the scope of this measure during the last days of the campaign, assuring that it would only concern “a few dozen” positions, such as the management of nuclear power plants. He also tried to place it in the context of the fight against Russian interference, by insisting on the example of the Franco-Russians, who should be excluded from this type of strategic position. A wasted effort, we can see today at headquarters. “Even though we were only targeting the nuclear power plant commanders, the woman on duty at the hospital felt targeted. It damaged us, it reinforces the idea that we are racist.”regrets an executive, stunned that Sébastien Chenu had put forward this measure.
“The lesson is that we have to be better for next time.”philosopher Renaud Labaye, general secretary of the RN group in the Assembly. “There are endogenous causes that can be treated, such as investitures and program points, which must be better explained, or removed.”
The other observation of this election remains: the RN has largely underestimated the lever of the “Republican barrier”. “All this doesn’t work anymore”smiled Gilles Pennelle about the calls to unite against the extreme right, on the evening of the first round, in a triumphalist atmosphere. Before the second round, Jordan Bardella was still betting on the fact that the “popular fronts”, “against nature” according to him, would fuel abstention. It was ultimately not very significant, and the transfer of votes worked rather well, especially among left-wing voters. “The dam is crumbling, but It’s long. We didn’t think it would be this long.”recognizes Mathilde Androuët. “The political exercise is long and complicated. You have to go and find people one by one to convince them”she continues.
Finally, this failure in the electoral battle for the absolute majority is also the first for Jordan Bardella. The first president of the party not to bear the name of Le Pen had until then won the European elections of 2019, then 2024. Presented by the RN as “complementary” of Marine Le Pen, it allowed his party to attract other, younger, less politicized voters. “THE European elections, on the sole personality of Jordan Bardella, were easier to win”measures MEP Thierry Mariani.
Not enough to call into question the leading position taken by the young president of the party, who also took over the presidency of the group on Tuesday.Patriots for Europe” in the European Parliament. Especially since it allowed the three-time presidential candidate to preserve herself during this legislative battle. “Paradoxically, the campaign was not very targeted at Marine Le Pen”notes Thierry Mariani. Marine Le Pen is also preparing to take over the presidency of the RN group in the National Assembly on July 18. She now intends to concentrate on parliamentary work and preparation for the next presidential election. But she will also have to answer to justice from September 30: she is on trial, with other persons, in the case of European parliamentary assistants.