an exorbitant cost for public finances

Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform is at the heart of discussions and negotiations. The New Popular Front promises to return to it without delay.

The idea of ​​the New Popular Front is to return to a legal retirement age of 62, compared to 64 after Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform. The left-wing bloc is even aiming for a return to 60. Contrary to what Jean-Luc Mélenchon keeps repeating, it is impossible to reverse this reform by a simple decree.

It would be illegal because the decree could not change certain parameters, written into the law, including the most important ones, the age of entitlement, or the number of quarters needed to leave. The law must therefore be undone by a law. It is always possible to vote on a law, Olivier Faure, the leader of the Socialist Party, said on franceinfo, “that what was done by 49.3 can be undone by 49.3“But since no one has the majority, we have to build alliances to find a political consensus. When we look at the composition of the hemicycle, this means that the left and the RN should come to an agreement.

From a budgetary point of view, going back on the Macron pension reform would have a considerable cost. Everything must be taken into account: the payment of current pensions, but also those of all those who should have continued working until 64 and who would therefore leave earlier. According to the government’s impact study, the elimination of the 2023 reform alone would cost around 15 billion euros. According to France Insoumise, it would be more like 25 billion euros, but in this figure there is both the elimination of the Macron reform, as well as measures to revalue pensions. The Montaigne Institute, known for being more liberal, is rather on a bill that would exceed 50 billion euros. The bill could go up to 65 billion euros.

A prospect that risks panicking the rating agencies, they are sounding the alarm. Moddy’s as well as S&P Global have already warned: going back on the reform in one way or another would represent an increase in the burden, the interests of our debt. And therefore a risk of downgrading France’s financial rating.