Although the coalition of left-wing parties came out on top in the second round of legislative elections on Sunday, to everyone’s surprise, it does not have an absolute majority. The Macronists, in second place, are counting on potential divisions in the NFP to build a government agreement.
“It’s just an electoral agreement. There is no longer any NFP, they all want to overtake LFI to push them aside,” lashes out a Macronist executive in the National Assembly. In the presidential camp, the day after the second round of the legislative elections on Sunday, July 7, all eyes are on the New Popular Front (NFP), the coalition of left-wing parties that surprisingly came out on top in the results. Some are already betting on its future explosion, with the aim of then forming a government coalition with “the moderates.”
With 180 seats, the four components of the NFP – LFI, the PS, Les Ecologistes-EELV and the PCF – are just ahead of Renaissance and its allies, who have 163 seats, and the National Rally (143 seats). The Palais-Bourbon is divided into three blocs, with none of them having an absolute majority, set at 289 seats.
When the results were announced, the leading figures in the central bloc called for working with part of the left, while excluding La France Insoumise. “Jean-Luc Mélenchon and a number of his allies cannot govern France”warned Stéphane Séjourné, the secretary general of Renaissance, while Edouard Philippe, the boss of Horizons, also ruled out any agreement with the party founded by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “We must look at all the hypotheses, except those of the LFI and the RN”responds MoDem MP Philippe Vigier, re-elected in Eure-et-Loir.
In these conditions, how can we reach an agreement with the three other left-wing parties that have formed an alliance with the rebels? The NFP “is not a group” but “four different political groups, it’s an alliance so there can be other alliances”recalled the outgoing president of the National Assembly on France 2 on Monday morning, Yaël Braun-Pivet, re-elected in her stronghold of Yvelines. The Renaissance MP called for the constitution of“a large progressive Republican central bloc”, by also rejecting any agreement with La France Insoumise. “The Popular Front may crack”bet on Monday on franceinfo the Minister Delegate in charge of Industry, Roland Lescure, also re-elected.
“NFP is vinaigrette. Vinaigrette is only homogeneous when it is stirredjoked MoDem MP Richard Ramos on LCP. You will see, we will let the vinaigrette rest, we will have the PS oils on one side and then we will have the vinegar on the other.
“It won’t last. We’ll inevitably have a single LFI group.”
Richard Ramos, MoDem MPto LCP
For the parliamentarians of the central bloc, it is a question of moving quickly and being proactive. “I think we must do everything to get LFI out and push for a grand coalition. Otherwise LFI will hijack the left bloc,” warns the newly re-elected Renaissance de Moselle MP, Ludovic Mendes. But others are betting on a natural explosion of the left-wing coalition, without having to do anything. “We’re going to watch the NFP meet again this week: they don’t agree on anything, so they can’t both want to govern and implement their ‘program'”assures the Renaissance MP Antoine Armand, who has regained his seat in Haute-Savoie.
On the executive side, the dislocation of the NFP is indeed a hypothesis on the table but “Everything will depend on the composition of the groups in the Assembly”warns an advisor. The deputies have until July 18 to say in which political groups they intend to sit. Emmanuel Macron had also announced, on Sunday evening, that he would wait for the “structuring” of the new Assembly to form a government and kept Gabriel Attal, the resigning Prime Minister, in the meantime.
In the opposing camp, the attacks of Macron’s party seem, for the moment, to have no hold. “We’re doing everything we can to make sure it doesn’t explode. And for the moment, it’s holding.”smiles the environmentalist MP Benjamin Lucas, re-elected in Yvelines. “Nupes has always held on and worked together in the National Assembly when the parties were fighting outside. So yes: we will hold on, even more so.”adds environmentalist Sandra Regol, re-elected in Bas-Rhin. The various components of the NFP must also meet on Monday evening to decide what happens next.
“The presidential camp is trying to divide people. They are releasing fake news to create division. But no one will join a Macron government.”
Sandra Regol, Green MPto franceinfo
“Among the environmentalists, I don’t see who could give in to this kind of siren callreflects a source within the group previously led by Cyrielle Chatelain. In the PS, perhaps they will have a subject.”
Raphaël Glucksmann, the founder of Place publique, who had formed an alliance with the Socialist Party for the European elections, thus warned that he was going to “We have to behave like adults”. “We’re going to have to talk, we’re going to have to discuss, we’re going to have to dialogue”he said on the evening of the legislative results. On BFMTV, Monday, PS deputy Philippe Brun put on the table the idea of a coalition that could go as far as the LR group, passing through “the centrists”. It remains to be seen whether his position is in the majority. Other PS deputies who have been reappointed prefer to pass the buck to the Macronists. “I bet on the explosion of the presidential camp because they bet on the division of the left before the election, it was a bad move for themrecalls PS MP Arthur Delaporte. We’re a little smarter than they think.”
It is also certain that by doubling their number of seats, the socialists will try to regain leadership from LFI within the NFP. For the moment, there are still many uncertainties. “The Assembly becomes an archipelago of political formations which themselves can still split into sub-groupssighs socialist MP Hervé Saulignac. I pity the French who will try to understand.”