Early polls abroad | Early elections unlikely in Canada, experts say

(Ottawa) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau turned heads internationally in 2021 when he called a snap election in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

He made the gamble to try to secure a Liberal majority at a time when everything seemed uncertain. And although the gamble failed, Canadians gave Mr. Trudeau a second, slightly stronger minority mandate.

For more than a year, speculation has been rife that he intends to send voters back to the polls before the scheduled election date of October 2025.

But given international examples of snap elections leading to incumbents leaving office, the federal Conservatives maintaining a healthy lead in national polls and speculation about whether Trudeau should resign, it seems unlikely the Liberals will want to roll the dice again.

In the past week alone, two G7 governments have been toppled by sentiment against the ruling power.

On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron risked the relative majority of his centrist alliance in legislative elections that he lost.

In the UK, Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party was defeated in an unusual vote in July last week. The party that led Britain for 14 years was relegated to official opposition, with Keir Starmer’s Labour Party winning 412 of the 650 seats in parliament.

Macron as a counter-model

Neither country offers a perfect comparison for Canada, but they can offer some insight, says Jerry White, a professor of English at the University of Saskatchewan and a former Canada Research Chair in European studies.

“Macron has been in difficulty for some time,” he explains.

He dissolved the French National Assembly last month after his centrist party suffered a crushing defeat to the far right in European parliamentary elections.

It was a coalition of left-wing parties that ultimately won on Sunday, although it did not win a majority of seats, ousting Mr Macron’s centrist party and leaving the far-right National Rally party far behind.

Mr Macron’s personal popularity in France has collapsed and, although he remains president until 2027, he may have to share power with a prime minister who opposes most of his domestic policies.

Mr White said the polarisation in France was due in part to frustration with Mr Macron’s leadership and the lack of a viable alternative, saying the traditional centrist core of French politics had collapsed.

“France finds itself with a sort of technocratic elite that presents itself as being beyond politics, and a sort of very hard left and right alternative that people gravitate towards,” he sums up.

This could be a lesson for Trudeau’s Liberals, who, he said, “tend to present themselves as being coldly detached from all these unsavory political issues.”

Mr White believes Mr Macron made the mistake of presenting himself as above the political fray.

“Partisanship is the game they are playing and there is no need to be ashamed of it,” he said.

Too long a reign?

In the UK, Mr White said there was “impatience with the government in power” after 14 years.

Mr Sunak had until the end of the year to call an election, but he dissolved parliament at the end of May.

In June, Labour had a 20-point lead in the polls, leading many to wonder why the Conservatives were heading down the path to defeat.

Polls suggest Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals could face the same hurdle after nine years in power. Few Canadian governments have held on longer.

Mr Trudeau is expected to meet with France’s Emmanuel Macron and Britain’s Keir Starmer this week at the NATO heads of state and government summit in Washington.

The talks are likely to be influenced by developments in the United States, where alliance leaders are facing the possibility of an electoral defeat for President Joe Biden and a new presidency for Donald Trump.

Mr. Trudeau and his ministers have been beset by questions about their political future since the Liberals suffered a surprise byelection defeat in a riding the party had held for more than 30 years.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called on Trudeau to call a snap election after his party won the Toronto-area riding.