Left-wing union in the lead, record turnout, setback for the RN… What to remember from the 2nd round

The New Popular Front became the new majority force in the National Assembly, followed by the presidential camp and then the National Rally.

A turnaround at the polls. The New Popular Front created a surprise in the second round of the legislative elections on Sunday, July 7. The left-wing alliance came out on top and should win between 177 and 192 seats in the National Assembly, according to an Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP. The National Rally – with its allies – leading the polls during the campaign, missed the mark, but increased its numbers: from 89 elected representatives until then, the party should obtain 138 to 145 deputies.

Conversely, the presidential camp did better than expected – 152 to 158 seats –, benefiting from withdrawals between the two rounds. It still lost around a hundred deputies. But the gamble of dissolution launched by Emmanuel Macron on June 9, leading to the holding of early legislative elections, could have ended in a much heavier rout. Here is what to remember from the vote and the new face of the National Assembly.

The left alliance becomes the leading force in the chamber

The New Popular Front becomes the leading political force in the National Assembly with between 177 and 192 elected deputies, according to an Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP. The left-wing alliance does not reach an absolute majority, but defies predictions, which placed it behind the RN. “This is a huge relief for the overwhelming majority of people in our country. (…) These people felt threatened, terribly. Let them rest assured, they have won.”reacted Jean-Luc Mélenchon on France 2, Sunday evening.

The new union of the left is doing better than the Nupes, the previous alliance between La France insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Ecologists and the French Communist Party. The latter had 150 seats in the hemicycle. The leader of La France insoumise called on the Prime Minister to “go away”. “The President has the duty to call on the New Popular Front to govern”he also hammered home.

The First Secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, declared for his part that “the role of the New Popular Front and at its heart” of the PS would be “rebuilding a collective project for our country”.

A mixed result for the National Rally

The RN is suffering an unexpected setback, while taking up more and more space in the chamber. Given the lead in the polls during a campaign led by Jordan Bardella who already imagined himself as Prime Minister, the party and its allies should finally obtain between 138 and 145 elected representatives and become the third political force in the chamber.

The RN alone takes 124 to 128 seats. Allied with the extreme right, the contested president of the Republicans, Eric Ciotti, and his supporters will have 14 to 17 deputies. “The tide is rising. It has not risen high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, therefore, our victory is only delayed.”declared Marine Le Pen on TF1 after the vote. Jordan Bardella, for his part, assured that “The National Rally [allait] “to amplify his work in the National Assembly” during a speech.

The presidential camp saves the furniture but loses a hundred deputies

The president’s allies, united under the label Ensemble aux legislatives, are doing better than expected by beating the RN. “We have held on and we are standing with three times more deputies than what some estimates gave at the beginning of this campaign“, welcomed Gabriel Attal. The candidates of the Macronie were able to take advantage of the withdrawals of the NFP candidates when the RN was in the lead, according to the Ipsos-Talan study for Radio France, France Télévisions, France 24-RFI and LCP-Assemblée nationale: 72% of the voters of the union of the left during the first round voted in the second round for the Ensemble contenders facing an RN candidate.

But each of the coalition’s components sees its numbers reduced. Renaissance, the presidential party, will have only 95 to 98 seats in the future Assembly, compared to 169 before the dissolution. MoDem, François Bayrou’s party, which had a group of 50 parliamentarians, will send between 32 and 34 deputies to the Assembly. Finally, Horizons, Edouard Philippe’s party, marks a slight withdrawal, with 25 to 26 elected representatives, compared to 31 deputies previously.

Gabriel Attal will present his resignation, but will remain “as long as duty requires”

Gabriel Attal was re-elected in Hauts-de-Seine, but it was a half-hearted victory: the Prime Minister announced that he would present his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron on Monday morning. The head of government nevertheless said he was ready to stay at Matignon “as long as duty requires[it]“referring to the Olympic Games which open on July 26.

For its part, the presidency has announced that Emmanuel Macron will wait to know the “structuring” of the new Assembly before choosing the people invited to join the government.

Political figures including François Hollande, Gérald Darmanin and Olivier Marleix re-elected

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin announced his re-election in his constituency of Tourcoing (North) against the RN candidate. In the 6th constituency of Calvados, former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne won with 55.43% of the vote ahead of Nicolas Calbrix (RN).

On the left, former President François Hollande won by a wide margin in Corrèze. For his part, François Ruffin was narrowly re-elected in the Somme against the RN candidate. On the right, Eric Ciotti, the president of LR allied with the RN, won in the Alpes-Maritimes.

Record turnout since 1997, slightly higher than in the first round

Voters turned out in massive numbers for the second round of the legislative elections. The final turnout rate is expected to reach 67.1%, according to our Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP. This is slightly higher than in the first round, when 66.6% of registered voters went to the polls.

This election generated significantly more interest than the second round of the last legislative elections in 2022. Less than half of those registered (46.23%) went to the polling booths. It is also the highest turnout for elections since 1997 (67.9%).