(Paris) Will the “republican front” formed to counter the National Rally (RN) work? The French begin to give their answer on Saturday, overseas and in America, for a weekend of legislative elections with historic stakes.
Voters in Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the small French collectivity in the North Atlantic, are the first to go to the polls on Saturday. In the territory’s only constituency where polling stations opened at 8 a.m., a right-wing miscellaneous and a socialist are facing off in a duel.
This will be followed by Guyana, the Antilles, the French living on the American continent and Polynesia, then New Caledonia in the evening. The French living in mainland France and in other overseas territories will vote on Sunday.
At the national level, rarely have legislative elections unleashed so many passions, aroused the anxiety of some or the hope of those who, by voting for Marine Le Pen’s party, want to give her political family the possibility of governing.
A far-right government in France would be a first since World War II.
A few hours before the end of the electoral campaign on Friday at midnight and the start of a reserve period, several polls seemed to show a tightening between the three blocs: the RN and its allies, the left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) and the Macronists.
In the National Assembly that will emerge from the polls on Sunday, the RN and its allies would not have an absolute majority, according to these surveys. They would even be quite far from it, with 170 to 210 seats according to Ifop, and 175 to 205 according to Ipsos, for an absolute majority set at 289 deputies. They would be closely followed by the NFP (155 to 185 seats according to Ifop, 145 to 175 according to Ipsos) and followed by the Macronists (120 to 150 seats according to Ifop, 118 to 148 according to Ipsos).
” Unique part ”
Last Sunday, after winning the first round with 33.2%, the Le Pen party seemed able to obtain a strong relative majority, or even an absolute majority.
Despite a slight decline, he had repeated his victory in the European elections of June 9, which had prompted President Emmanuel Macron to turn the tables by declaring the dissolution of the National Assembly.
For Marine Le Pen, if the latest polls are confirmed, it would be the triumph of a “single party” of “those who want to keep power against the will of the people”. The fruit of “scheming”, added one of her lieutenants Jean-Philippe Tanguy.
In the hours following the first round, more than 200 candidates from the left and center withdrew. And dozens of three-way races, which seemed favorable to the RN, turned into much more uncertain duels.
PHOTO BERTRAND GUAY, ARCHIVES AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
If the National Rally were to cross the threshold of 289 elected representatives, or come close to it, it would be Jordan Bardella, 28, who would enter Matignon.
A supporter of the union on the left despite his opposition to La France insoumise (LFI), MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, former head of the socialist list for the European elections, warned against a demobilisation of voters and stated that the possibility of an absolute majority for the Le Pen party could not be ruled out.
“Contrary to the little music that is being played, it is not at all guaranteed at the time we speak,” he declared on Friday evening.
“Today the danger is a majority dominated by the extreme right and that would be a catastrophic project,” warned Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, head of the Macronist campaign, on the 8 p.m. news on France 2 on Friday.
If the National Rally were to cross the threshold of 289 elected representatives, or come close to it, it would be Jordan Bardella, 28, who would enter Matignon. He would become the youngest prime minister in history and would implement the anti-immigration program advocated for decades by his party.
But if the left and the Macronists were to succeed, with their republican front, in defeating the RN, they would have to offer the French a solution for governing the country.
“The carp and the rabbit”
The idea of a broad coalition bringing together part of the left, the central bloc and the right, which is hostile to an agreement with the RN, has therefore emerged. But on what program could this alliance, described by political scientists as “baroque” or “carp and rabbit”, agree?
Between the socialists who refuse to be “auxiliaries” of the presidential camp, the ecologists who consider that such a coalition must apply the NFP program, and the Macronists who call for “taking a step towards the other”, the equation promises to be complex and the discussions arduous.
“We are already in the process of building a coalition that takes both sides. The French can impose a republican coalition at the ballot box on Sunday,” said a close friend of Emmanuel Macron on Friday.
Gabriel Attal said Friday that his government could ensure the continuity of the state “as long as necessary,” that is, deal with current affairs while waiting for a new government to be formed. The question is all the more relevant since Paris will host the Olympic Games from July 26 to August 11.
Tradition dictates that the government presents its resignation after legislative elections. Gabriel Attal has announced that he will speak on Sunday evening about his intentions.
The end of the campaign, in a climate of great tension, was marked by attacks and violence against candidates and activists. Faced with possible excesses on Sunday evening, 30,000 police officers will be mobilized, including 5,000 in Paris.
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