What could happen at the top of the State the day after the second round of the legislative elections?

Depending on the results of the vote, several options are possible for the executive couple. Franceinfo explains.

Without engaging in political fiction, several scenarios are indeed possible concerning the form that the exercise of power could take following the results of the legislative elections.

What happens if the RN has an absolute majority?

This is not the dynamic of the polls, but it remains a possible scenario and above all the simplest to implement. In the event of an absolute majority for the RN, Jordan Bardella would be appointed Prime Minister, responsible for forming a new government. Except that Article 8 of the Constitution does not impose any deadline for his appointment. Emmanuel Macron does what he wants, at least for the time being, even if stalling would be inappropriate in a scenario where the political situation is very clear. In the same way, it is difficult to imagine Gabriel Attal, the current head of government, holding back and not resigning on Sunday as tradition dictates. This would mean acknowledging a political defeat and the fact that he therefore no longer has a majority.

What happens in the event of a relative majority?

The risk here is that of having an ungovernable Assembly, and in this case, Jordan Bardella has already warned: he will refuse Matignon. “Refusal of obstacle”, Gabriel Attal is already mocking. Whatever happens, the Prime Minister said on Friday July 5 that he was ready to ensure the continuity of the State for as long as necessary. “He always met his responsibilities,” justifies his entourage. Even if the head of government resigned on Sunday, Emmanuel Macron can quite easily charge him with handling current affairs, particularly with a view to the Olympic Games. With the president, this latency period can last a long time. In 2022, Jean Castex had waited almost a month before the arrival of Élisabeth Borne.

There are two possible ways out in this scenario of a relative majority. First, the option of a coalition government. But with whom? Marine Tondelier, Xavier Bertrand…? And above all, at what price? At the price of what alliances and what program? The second option consists of forming a government of technicians, economists and senior civil servants. On condition, however, that the new Assembly does not overthrow it at the first opportunity.

What’s happening to Emmanuel Macron?

Emmanuel Macron wanted clarification, not sure he will get it. The head of state has, in principle, not planned to speak on Sunday. Everything will depend on the results, but it will most likely be Gabriel Attal, as last Sunday evening of the 1^er tour. However, Emmanuel Macron will be forced to quickly draw conclusions from this election. Before Tuesday evening, when he will be expected in Washington, United States, for the NATO summit.

“He is radioactive”lashes out at an outgoing MP who is ending his campaign without putting the president’s face on his posters, like his camp, which first contested his decision to dissolve, then ostentatiously distanced itself from his authority. At the risk of giving the impression that Emmanuel Macron is now isolated, in the midst of Darmanin, Attal, Philippe who are sharpening their knives for 2027. So as a last resort, could Emmanuel Macron resign? His entourage is categorical: no, “This is one more fake news”.