Last winter, Justin Trudeau was not about to take a “walk in the snow,” following in the famous footsteps of his father, who resigned as Prime Minister of Canada after a winter stroll in 1984.
Is Justin Trudeau now ready for a walk… in the sand?
Some Liberals would like their leader to think about his future, after losing the stronghold of Toronto–St. Paul’s in a by-election at the end of June. And they are no longer hiding from saying so publicly, shattering the beautiful Liberal unity.
Former Environment Minister Catherine McKenna threw the first arrow, followed by New Brunswick MP Wayne Long. Nine other MPs also wrote in requesting a caucus meeting to discuss the “extremely concerning” results of an election “that the Liberal Party should not have lost.”
But on Justin Trudeau’s side, it’s radio silence. Is he staying in the saddle out of overconfidence or willful blindness?
The problem is that there is no more popular successor to take up the torch. The Liberal brand is most associated with Justin Trudeau, who has relied on his personality to rebuild the party that was in the doldrums when he arrived in 2013.
It was a double-edged sword, because after nine years in power, the Trudeau brand is worn thin. The desire for change is an implacable enemy. The prime minister’s leadership style is exhausted. His ideas are falling flat.
He tried to regain his momentum. But his cabinet reshuffle last summer failed to move Canadians. And the long “strip-tease” that surrounded the unveiling of the last budget did not entice voters any further.
Nothing has moved the needle in the polls. Even the young people who brought Justin Trudeau to power are now seduced by the right.
Today, more than two-thirds of Canadians (68%) believe the prime minister should go, according to the polling firm Ipsos.
But with or without a new leader, it is clear that the slope will be very difficult to climb for the Liberals who are trailing 15 to 20 points behind the Conservatives, who are well aligned for a majority victory.
If the game is done, why waste a new leader by sending him to the slaughterhouse? No one wants to suffer the sad fate of Kim Campbell, who took over after Brian Mulroney resigned. She then suffered a terrible sweep that left the Conservative Party with just two MPs.
Whether Justin Trudeau leaves or stays will not solve the underlying problems, because the discontent is not only linked to the leader. And the list of grievances of Canadians is long.
Always spending more than planned, the party has never presented a balanced budget, even in good years.
Since he took power, the bureaucracy has swelled by 40%, or 100,000 civil servants. And scandals like ArriveCAN add to this ugly impression of waste of public funds.
With the centralization of power in the prime minister’s office, the state apparatus is struggling to deliver basic services to the population (passports, subsidies1etc.) and to make the simplest gestures, such as appointing judges, threatening the proper functioning of the courts.
The Liberal Party must change course if it wants to convince voters to give it another mandate. It cannot simply sail along in continuity, demonizing the perils of the right.
The results of the European elections and the first round of the French legislative elections have clearly demonstrated that voters are not afraid to vote for far-right parties. French President Emmanuel Macron made a terrible mistake by challenging them.
In Canada, the Liberal Party will have to seriously roll up its sleeves to counter Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
The Liberals could start by refocusing, having moved to the left of the spectrum to ensure their political survival, thanks to an alliance with the New Democratic Party (NDP).
To redistribute wealth, we still need to create it.
Yet for decades, Canada has been a productivity dunce. As a result, our standard of living is declining relative to other countries. Ultimately, this weighs on the government’s ability to fund public services and on the ability of households to improve their purchasing power.
As authoritarian regimes show their teeth, Ottawa should also take its national defence more seriously. Canada cannot have a strong voice internationally by continuing to do less than its share with its NATO allies.
Good relationships are cultivated. Internationally, as well as within Canada. But whether through arrogance or indifference, the Liberals have also neglected their relationships with provincial premiers, thereby undermining national harmony. Immigration, housing, health care… The best solutions come through collaboration.
If the man of “sunny ways” can no longer shine, can no longer inspire his troops and the Canadian population, Justin Trudeau will have to take a walk in the sand.
1. Read “Still waiting several months to receive your check”