Israel’s hesitations over a potential offensive in Lebanon

Israel has been threatening to take action in Lebanon against Hezbollah for months. This week, the Israeli army says it has validated the plans for its offensive, except that there are still hesitations.

The first of his hesitations is linked to the fact that the Jewish state has failed to achieve its objectives in Gaza. Hamas continues to carry out operations and the war could last for weeks without bringing a decisive victory for Israel. Furthermore, there is no unanimity in the war cabinet and among Israeli generals who warn against the cost of a war in Lebanon which could be very heavy. The general staff remembers the precedents of 1982 and especially of 2006. Finally, the categorical refusal of the United States, which fears a general explosion, is another obstacle for Israel.

Hezbollah is also a major enemy compared to Hamas. The Shiite movement is a real army with trained militiamen, extremely well equipped and above all seasoned, knowing the terrain like the back of their hand. As in Gaza, these fighters have underground spaces to move around and an autonomous telecommunications system. Above all, there is Hezbollah’s armament which covers the entire range of military equipment, from drones to anti-tank rockets, including missiles of all types.

Some experts cite the figure of at least 150,000 missiles and rockets, only planes and helicopters are missing. At the beginning of June, the Shiite movement announced that it had used air defense missiles against Israeli aircraft.

The Israeli authorities are careful not to talk about eradicating Hezbollah as they do with Hamas, but they still seem to want to change the current status quo on its northern border. The objective would be to reduce Hezbollah’s military capabilities through bombings and to push its fighters back around ten kilometers and to create a sort of demilitarized security zone on Lebanese territory.

This is what the American envoy Amos Hochstein proposed in Beirut at the beginning of the week, where he suffered a refusal from the party of God. Hezbollah, through its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been repeating since October 7 and the start of the border clashes that it does not want to trigger an escalation. If Israel decided to go on the offensive in a massive way, the response of the Shiite movement would be just as massive, namely that vital infrastructure and Israeli cities would then become targets for bombing by Hezbollah.