after months of tensions, why is the Israeli army considering an offensive in Lebanon?

Clashes have intensified in recent days around the border which separates the two countries, against a backdrop of war in the Gaza Strip.

A “total war”. This is the threat that Israel poses to Lebanon, promising to eliminate the Islamist movement Hezbollah after more than eight months of violence on both sides of the border. “We are very close to the moment when we will decide to change the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon,” warned Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Tuesday June 18. “In a total war, Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be hit hard”he added.

All-powerful in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has increased its rocket attacks on Israel since the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip in October 2023. A way of supporting the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, its ally in the enclave. In response, the Israeli army bombed numerous locations in Lebanon, even going so far as to strike Beirut, its capital. After the announcement made by the Israeli army on Tuesday, these bombings could soon be accompanied by ground fighting. Franceinfo returns to the escalation of tensions in this disputed region.

Hezbollah in battle order since the start of the war in Gaza

The day after the Hamas attacks against Israel, perpetrated on October 7, “Hezbollah fired rockets into the territory of the Jewish state in solidarity with the Palestinian movement”recalled historian Jihane Sfeir in The Conversation. The Lebanese organization mainly targeted localities in the northern district of Israel. In addition to rockets, anti-tank missile and kamikaze drone fire were gradually added.

Faced with these repeated attacks, warning sirens sound almost daily in northern Israel. According to the newspaper Haaretzaround 80,000 residents were forced to evacuate the border area with Lebanon, which now resembles a no man’s land. The exodus of civilians is also taking place on the Lebanese side, as in the city of Tyre, which continues to empty.

According to a count published by the Israeli army in early April, more than 3,000 rockets had been fired at Israel from Lebanon in the space of six months. For its part, Hezbollah claims some 2,100 military operations of all types against Israel since October 7. Whether in Israel or Lebanon, explosions have recently caused major vegetation fires, fueled by high heat.

The violence has already left around twenty dead on the Israeli side and more than 470 victims in Lebanon.

At least 11 civilians and 15 Israeli soldiers have died in the north of the country since the start of these clashes with Hezbollah, according to an AFP count. Latest victim, reported Release : Reservist Refael Kauders was killed near the Israeli-Lebanese border during a probable Hezbollah drone attack. Before him, Sharif Sawaed, a technician working for the Israeli army, was killed in the Har Dov area on April 25 by an anti-tank missile fire.

Often launched in response to these attacks, or when spotting Hezbollah executives, air raids by the Israeli army led to the death of more than 380 fighters affiliated with the Islamist movement, again according to the AFP count. The IDF also eliminated former Hamas number 2, Saleh al-Arouri, during a strike carried out in the suburbs of Beirut on January 2.

These Israeli bombings did not spare the Lebanese population, as when seven members of the same family lost their lives in Nabatiyé, in the south of the country, after a drone attack targeting members of Hezbollah in their building. In total, 92 civilians were killed in Lebanon during military operations launched by the Jewish state.

The number of rockets fired by Hezbollah jumped in the space of a week

Clashes between the Islamist movement and the Israeli army took a new turn the week of June 10, after the assassination of Taleb Sami Abdallah, senior military commander of Hezbollah, killed on June 11 during a targeted Israeli strike. . In order to avenge his death, Hezbollah launched its largest simultaneous rocket and drone attacks against Israeli army positions on June 13. In total, more than 200 “projectiles” fired from Lebanon crossed the border with Israel, according to IDF reports of the day on Telegram.

Since this major barrage, air raids have intensified in southern Lebanon, targeting “terrorist structures” and “drone launch zones” of Hezbollah, according to the Israeli army, which leaves doubt concerning a possible ground operation. “Operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon have been approved and validated, and decisions have been taken regarding (…) the preparation of troops on the ground”the Israeli army said Tuesday evening.

The last Israeli military incursion into Lebanon dates back to the summer of 2006, during the “33 Day War”, during which Israeli army forces notably stormed the towns of Bint-Jbeil and Baalbek. The conflict had made nearly 1,400 dead, including 1,200 on the Lebanese side (mostly civilians), according to the International Committee of the Red Cross.