Federal political assessment | Between interference, carelessness and “monuncleries”, time for vacation for elected officials

(Ottawa) Members of the House of Commons break camp on Wednesday, as torrid heat falls on Ottawa. The postponement of the work puts an end to months of cold sweats for the Liberals, who hoped to turn things around with the presentation of a budget spiced up with divisive measures. Six-step review.

Interference (bis)

Parliamentary proceedings in Ottawa end against a backdrop of foreign interference once again this year. The establishment of the Hogue Commission on foreign interference gave the Trudeau government some respite this year. But the publication of an explosive report according to which parliamentarians knowingly or unknowingly helped foreign states to interfere in Canadian politics has reignited this thorny debate. And it is difficult to navigate between the interpretations of Jagmeet Singh (elected officials in office are on the payroll of foreign state entities) and Elizabeth May (there are no traitors on Parliament Hill). The fact that Pierre Poilievre refuses to take advantage of the security clearance that could allow him to read the unredacted report and that Justin Trudeau refuses to make any comments does not help to see things more clearly.

Poilievremania

The trend is heavy, very heavy. Poll after poll, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre still enjoys a considerable lead. A majority Conservative victory in the next election is clearly emerging – and once again, on Wednesday, the leader of the official opposition challenged Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to call an election on the carbon tax. Last summer was profitable for Pierre Poilievre, who widened a gap between him and Justin Trudeau. And it’s not just his troops who have benefited from it: he is also reaping the rewards, being considered the one who would make the best prime minister with 44% favorable opinions compared to 25% for Justin Trudeau, according to an Ipsos poll published Wednesday.

Leaf stripping

Something had to be done to put an end to the slide, and that is what the Liberal strategists decided to do by devoting a month to unveiling the budget before its official presentation on April 16. National school feeding program, massive investments in affordable housing, universal access to contraceptives and insulin, increase in the inclusion rate of capital gains: we wanted to establish a clear contrast between liberal generosity and conservative austerity. The month spent deploying ministers to the four corners of the country, to make the same announcements simultaneously, did not pay off: the poll needle did not move.

The 2 %

As part of the budget pre-sale operation, the government finally unveiled the update of its defense policy. With all due respect to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg – who is in Ottawa on Wednesday – or to powerful allies like the United States, the plan still does not establish a trajectory towards reaching 2%. of GDP in military spending. Rather, it is a question of reaching 1.76% by 2029-2030. As the Alliance summit approaches, which is being held in Washington next July, 23 senators have written to Justin Trudeau to urge him to loosen the purse strings. “I am convinced that we will achieve this 2% objective,” the Minister of Foreign Affairs declared on Wednesday, without providing a timetable.

Immigration

Under the leadership of Immigration Minister Marc Miller, the Liberals have tightened the screws on immigration in recent months: return of the visa requirement for Mexican travelers, plan to increase it from 6.2% to 5% the proportion of temporary residents by 2027, establishment of a ceiling on foreign students. Then came a check for 750 million for Quebec last June. But since then, the rag has not stopped burning between the Caquists of François Legault and the Liberals of Justin Trudeau. On the one hand, the Quebec Prime Minister accuses Minister Miller of wanting to portray Quebecers as racists, and argues that 100% of the housing crisis is due to temporary immigration. On the other hand, Marc Miller criticizes François Legault for “accusing immigrants of being homeless and of being responsible for the drug addiction that is rampant in Montreal”, comments that he calls “monuncle”.

Carelessness

Explosion of costs for application development ArriveCAN, irregularities in the awarding of contracts reserved for indigenous businesses, violations of procurement policies in the awarding of tender contracts to the firm McKinsey. This is a poor record for the federal machine – and for the Liberal government. You would have thought that the civil service had learned from its experience two years ago with the passport fiasco, but apparently there is still work to be done…