Franceinfo would like to point out that a poll is not a prediction, but a photograph of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the more the margin of error increases. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
Just over three months before the first round of the presidential election, scheduled for April 10, 2022, Emmanuel Macron confirms his lead in voting intentions, according to the survey * Ipsos – Sopra Steria for franceinfo and Le Parisien / Today in France published Friday January 7. Indeed, the Head of State collects nearly 26% of voting intentions, against 17% for Marine Le Pen, placed in second position. These values are almost identical to our last survey a month ago.
So there is a “very great stability of the balance of power after the holidays”, assures Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos. “There were no major effects”, he notes, especially for Emmanuel Macron who “do not take advantage of the vows or his little sentence about the fact that he says he is ready to ‘piss off’ the unvaccinated”. The current President of the Republic is credited with 26% of the voting intentions in the first round if Christiane Taubira does not appear, against 25.5% with a candidacy from the former Minister of Justice.
Moreover, since the last survey carried out on December 8, “there is a small development which is not negligible on the balance of power on the extreme right”, points Mathieu Gallard. Indeed, Marine Le Pen gains one point in one month (17%) while Eric Zemmour loses two (12%). The National Rally candidate is also slightly ahead of the Les Républicains candidate, Valérie Pécresse (16%), who remains stable. The second place to reach the second round of the presidential election thus remains very disputed and very uncertain.
This poll also highlights a feeling shared by the electorates of Emmanuel Macron’s main competitors in the second round: the final victory of the head of state. According to Mathieu Gallard, “there is a strong skepticism” of the electorate of Marine Le Pen and Valérie Pécresse on a victory for their candidate. Slightly less than the majority of the RN candidate’s electorate (47%) believe in her election. It is a little more (54%) for the electorate of Valérie Pécresse while 88% of the electorate of Emmanuel Macron believes in his re-election. “It can play on the mobilization of the electorate” of the RN and LR during the election, analyzes Mathieu Gallard. He puts all the same into perspective: “There are less than 100 days before the first round, there may be campaign dynamics. But for now, only the electorate of Emmanuel Macron remains stable.”
Finally, our poll also highlights that Christiane Taubira does not break through in the polls, with 3% of voting intentions in the first round. Ipsos – Sopra Steria tested two hypotheses with respondents: a first round without the former Minister of Justice and a first round with her. If Christiane Taubira has not yet confirmed her candidacy for the presidential election, the possibility of her presence does not create an earthquake on the left in the voting intentions.
Thus, in the event that Christiane Taubira would be a candidate, the socialist Anne Hidalgo would lose 1.5 points of voting intention (3%), while the ecologist Yannick Jadot would drop from 8 to 7% of voting intentions and would remain stable compared to the last survey. Jean-Luc Mélenchon would remain stable in both cases (9%). The leader of La France insoumise also wins one point compared to the last survey a month ago. The same stability is found for the communist Fabien Roussel (2%), Arnaud Montebourg (1%), Nathalie Arthaud supported by Lutte Ouvrière (1%) and Philippe Poutou, supported by the New anti-capitalist party (1%).
According to Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos, “Christiane Taubira does not arouse enthusiasm. She is clearly left behind by Yannick Jadot. She takes a little of the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Benoît Hamon in 2017.” Indeed, 11% of the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round of the 2017 presidential election would vote for Christiane Taubira on April 10 and 14% of the voters of Benoît Hamon.
* Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and “Le Parisien / Today in France”, carried out from January 5 to 6, 2022 on a sample of 1,500 people registered on the electoral roll, representative of the French population aged 18 and over. more.