To put an end to “Trumpnesia”

In view of the US presidential election next November, the great merit of the verdict rendered by a New York jury in the Stormy Daniels affair is that it reminds Americans how toxic Donald Trump is.

This may seem obvious, but it’s not.

Or, to be more precise, I should say that it no longer is.

Because memory is a faculty that forgets.

This is perhaps true in politics more than anywhere else.

The more time passes, the more the memories of the mistakes, bad decisions, ineptitudes and sometimes even atrocities of most elected officials fade.

For example, try to remember why Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper was so unpopular at the end of his term.

Who remembers in detail why we affirmed in our pages in 2015 that he had been for ten years at the head of a government “destructive fuel for pettiness and narrow-mindedness”?

The same phenomenon is happening in the United States.

Presidents’ popularity generally starts to rise again once they leave the White House, regardless of their record.

A striking example: I covered the political disaster of George W. Bush in the mid-2000s from Washington and I fell out of my chair a few years after his departure to see that his popularity had soared (while his However, his legacy was lamentable, especially because of the war in Iraq).

Donald Trump seems to benefit from this strong trend.

THE New York Times recently released the results of a poll it conducted last month to find out what people remembered most about the four years of his presidency¹.

Surprisingly, “two of the biggest events in American news in decades, the COVID-19 pandemic and the January 6 storming of the Capitol, are rarely the first to cross people’s minds when they think about it. remember the Trump administration,” it reads.

People cited his behavior much more often, but also the economy and immigration.

For what ?

“Due to recency bias – a tendency to focus on recent events rather than past events – people generally feel their current problems more acutely. In addition, they tend to remember past experiences more warmly, which can lead to a feeling of nostalgia,” explain the journalists of the New York Times.

Blueprint, an organization working to re-elect Joe Biden, found by surveying young people under 30 that many have forgotten (or never heard) some of the most controversial remarks of Donald Trump.

In his opinion, these are examples of “Trumpnesia”.

This is one of the factors to consider when trying to understand why the former American president remains so popular with millions of American voters.

The New York jury’s verdict has just confirmed that Donald Trump is a crook, at least in the context of the Stormy Daniels affair.

Noting that the former president is now a convicted criminal should, in my opinion, help revive certain bad memories among some Americans.

This conviction will make headlines again this summer, when the sentence will be pronounced. The planned date is July 11, a few days before the Republican convention – the high mass of Donald Trump’s party, during which his candidacy for the presidency will be made official.

Polls have already shown that a small but significant percentage of Republican voters would abandon Donald Trump if he were found guilty after a criminal trial (4%, according to an ABC News/Ipsos study carried out in April) .

Despite everything, almost everyone agrees that the consequences of this historic event on the November election are far from clear.

I wish I could contradict this burst of popular wisdom, but I cannot. It’s far too risky.

Firstly because there are five months left before the November election. An eternity in politics. Everything can happen.

For example, imagine if, during the presidential debate in September, Joe Biden delivered a pitiful performance, sometimes looking confused. Let’s face it, suddenly, the condemnation of Donald Trump would have neither the same scope nor the same weight on election day.

The polarization of American society also prevents us from predicting with certainty the impact of sentencing.

Donald Trump and his allies seem convinced that the verdict will make it even easier for them to mobilize his most loyal supporters to convince them to vote en masse in November. A record sum of nearly US$35 million was raised in a few hours after the verdict.

Are they right? Will the number of potential Trump voters boosted by the conviction be very high in key states (where it counts)? Even more than the number of potential Trumpists who will turn their backs on the candidate because they don’t want to vote for a criminal?

You would have to be a soothsayer to know that. Alas, I am not. Neither do Trump’s allies, for that matter! Until proven otherwise, their predictions are wishful thinking. “Spin”.

What we can predict without fear of being wrong, however, is that confidence in the justice system will deteriorate further over the coming months due to Donald’s – dismaying – attacks. Trump and Republicans.

It remains to be hoped that this disturbing offensive will also refresh the memory of voters who have forgotten to what extent Donald Trump’s time in the White House was a painful ordeal for American democracy.

1. Read the article from New York Times (in English, subscription required)

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