A good idea, this new version of the 3e link reserved for public transport?
In theory, yes. It is an excellent idea to connect the two city centers of Québec and Lévis by public transport. Objecting to that is like saying you don’t like apple pie.
In practice, it probably won’t work. Because at first glance, it will probably be too expensive for the modest gains that we would make in public transport.
There are two central questions in any public transport project. How much does it cost ? And how many citizens will be transported? (In other words: how many cars will be removed from the roads?)
The cost of a Quebec-Lévis tunnel reserved for public transit, the Quebec government knows. It was redacted in the studies made public on Thursday. And Quebec does not want to say it1. For transparency, we will go back.
Let’s be clear: we must greatly improve the public transit offer in major cities in Quebec. We must invest significantly in Quebec, Lévis, Gatineau, Laval, Longueuil, Sherbrooke, etc. That is not the question.
The problem is that a Quebec-Lévis tunnel could cost visibly too much for the modest gains in public transit unveiled Thursday by the Ministry of Transport.
According to the Ministère des Transports, there would be 3,400 ridership trips from Lévis to Québec in a downtown-to-downtown tunnel reserved for public transit during morning rush hours in 2036. Let’s keep this figure in mind, even if Quebec does not specify if part of these 3400 passages would come from the 1500 Lévisiens who currently take the bus via the Quebec bridge.
Usually, the morning peak period is equivalent to 25% of the daily ridership of a public transit network. Being very (probably too) optimistic, a future Québec–Lévis tunnel would have approximately 13,600 transit trips per day.
What is the reasonable price for public transport for 13,600 new trips per day?
According to our calculations2, taxpayers will pay 1.29 billion per 10,000 new users per day for the extension of the blue line in Montreal. For the extension of the orange metro line in Laval, 940 million (in 2022 inflation-adjusted dollars) per 10,000 new users per day. For the REM, about 670 million.
Yes, it’s a lot of money, but it’s important to spend such sums to improve public transport and change our transport habits, to reduce our CO emissions.2.
If we gave the greater Quebec City region the same budget (in proportion to new users) for its tunnel that we gave to Montreal for the extension of the blue line, that would give a budget of 1.75 billion for the Quebec tunnel. -Levi’s.
Minister Guilbault confirmed Thursday that the abandoned project of two tubes (one for cars, the other for public transport) would have cost 10 billion. But nothing is known of the cost for the new version of a single tunnel reserved for public transport.
In explaining his about-face on the third link, Premier François Legault says he made a “pragmatic” and “responsible” decision because we manage Quebecers’ funds.
We hope that he will apply the same principle for the new version of the third link.
We must invest massively in public transit, but without squandering public funds because we painted ourselves in the corner politically.
If the Québec–Lévis tunnel costs $1.75 billion for 13,600 new trips/day, we say yes without hesitation! This is the price we will pay for the blue line in Montreal. We need to improve the public transit offer in the Québec region. We had enthusiastically supported this structuring project that is the tramway of Quebec3.
The problem is if the cost turns out to be pharaonic, even on the scale of public transport projects. At 4 or 5 billion, don’t even think about it.
The reality is that Quebec and Ottawa have envelopes reserved for public transit projects (Ottawa usually pays 40%). If we choose a pharaonic project to respect an electoral promise, that means that we penalize other more efficient and more meritorious public transit projects.
The goal should not be to build a third link at all costs, but to improve public transit ambitiously in Quebec City, Lévis, and in all major cities in Quebec.
2. These are our calculations, based on public data, including traffic reports and official project costs.