A year ago, we wondered if the fall election would be the occasion to sign the death certificate of the Parti Québécois. Things change quickly in politics. The Parti Québécois is now on the rise. Its leader, unloved and poorly known at the time, has become a respected and appreciated politician.
At the bottom of the wave, the PQ found itself in the cellar, more or less 10% of the voting intentions. It is also at this level that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon languished the day François Legault started the last campaign. This week, he gets 22%. Going from 10 to 22% in eight months is almost a feat.
Big assertion!
Commenting on the poll this week, the people of the PQ affirmed that their party was becoming the second political force in Quebec.
Is it overkill? Pretentious? Presumptuous?
The question is particularly interesting since for two years no opposition party has managed to settle in this clear second seat, an alternative to the government.
The result of the October election bears witness to this: the CAQ obtained 40% with, behind, a platoon of three opposition parties which each won 15%, to within a few commas.
The Liberal Party plays the role of official opposition thanks to the concentration of the Anglophone vote. But in many francophone ridings, they finished fifth out of five last October. No threat to the CAQ.
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The PQ as an alternative
For the first time in a long time, this week’s poll presents us with a party that stands out as an alternative to the CAQ. It is the PQ with its 22%. If the PQ won two more points and the CAQ lost as many (which could well happen), the PQ would find themselves 10 points off the lead. We’re starting to talk about competition, which we haven’t seen for a long time.
But a single poll does not make a political force. More is needed.
At the PQ, two other factors complete the portrait: funding and representativeness.
The Parti Québécois is doing more than well in its fundraising operations, clearly ahead of the other opposition parties. This was the case in 2022 and it seems to have started on the same footing in 2023.
The PQ has always been a solid machine of militancy and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon breathed a new dose of energy into it.
The PQ is also a party installed in all regions of Quebec. The PLQ and QS are competitive mainly in Montreal. Eric Duhaime, in Quebec. Do the exercise of looking at who finished second in the most ridings and ridings across all regions.
No ambiguity, it’s the PQ. That’s also being the alternative.
My answer
Summary: it is no exaggeration to affirm at this point that the Parti Québécois is the second political force.
The challenge for the PQ is to install the trend over time, to prevent this rise from being just a flash in the pan in a failed tunnel.