28th United Nations Climate Conference | The “COP of truth” to confront the world with its contradictions

Exit from fossil fuels, increased financing, assessment of actions taken; COP28 must “move the needle” in the fight against global warming. Overview of the functioning, contradictions and issues on the agenda.

Misunderstood role

“It would be naive to think that in two weeks, we will resolve the fate of humanity when we have been discussing climate issues for more than 28 years,” says Patrick Rondeau, director of the environment and just transition department at the Quebec Federation of Workers (FTQ), which will participate in its seventh COP. This unrealistic expectation is, in his opinion, the result of a misunderstanding of the role of these conferences, which is to negotiate framework agreements by consensus. “The COP cannot demand that China close its coal-fired power plants,” he illustrates. The challenge is to include in the agreement “the most restrictive language possible” regarding the targets to be achieved, thus forcing States to adopt plans to combat climate change consistent with the agreement they signed. The success of the COPs is measured by their ability to “move the needle” on global warming, says Patrick Rondeau. “Without these climate conferences, it would be a total and absolute catastrophe,” he says.

A COP in an oil and gas state

COP28 is being held in the United Arab Emirates because the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires a continental rotation of its annual meetings. “If it was in Europe all the time, we would always have the point of view of Europeans,” summarizes Patrick Rondeau. Talking about climate in an oil and gas producing state, in a COP whose president Ahmed al-Jaber is also Minister of Industry and CEO of the national oil company, is likely to “fuel cynicism”, recognizes Anne-Céline Guyon, energy and climate analyst at Nature Québec, who will also be on site. But this apparent contradiction is also an unprecedented opportunity to tackle the reduction of fossil fuels head-on, argue many members of civil society. “This is an extremely important COP, it will allow us to see the shortcomings and how to remedy them,” she said.

“The COP of truth”

The Dubai conference is presented as “the COP of truth”, because it comes just after the publication of the first “global assessment” of the implementation of the 2015 Paris Agreement. “It is a of the knots of the war of this conference,” estimates Annie Chaloux, professor at the School of Applied Politics at the University of Sherbrooke. “It will be important to see how the presidency and the parties take ownership of this assessment and how they decide to use it to accelerate the transition, to accelerate the transformations that are necessary for us to respect the objectives of the Paris Agreement », she explains, emphasizing that the notion of transparency imposed on countries around the world distinguishes this report from others. This mechanism “used to increase the ambition of States” should lead to “very frank and open discussions” to determine the next targets of the international community, adds André-Yanne Parent, general director of the organization Climate Reality Canada.

Avoid “false solutions”

One of the main challenges of COP28 will therefore be to manage to include in the final agreement the question of the gradual elimination of fossil fuels (phase-out), but also to deliver a plan for the progressive deployment of renewable energies (phase-in), indicates André-Yanne Parent. However, we must be wary of attempts by certain actors to “block the process, slow down or look away in order to offer lots of technological solutions”, warns Annie Chaloux. Many people are particularly concerned about seeing the elimination of fossil fuels limited to what is not accompanied by solutions for capturing and storing greenhouse gases (GHG), the “ unabated fossil fuels ”, according to the established English expression. Civil society intends to keep watch “to avoid a festival of false solutions”, assures Anne-Céline Guyon.

Find the money

Financing adaptation and mitigation measures will once again be at the heart of discussions. Rich countries pledged in 2009 to provide $100 billion (US) annually to developing countries from 2020 to 2025, but this promise was only fulfilled last year. “There is a need to at least double funding [pour l’après 2025] with a real roadmap to reestablish the bond of trust, which was broken in previous conferences,” indicates André-Yanne Parent. Added to this is separate funding for “loss and damage”, for the consequences of climate change to which it is impossible to adapt, such as land submersion. “Industrialized countries are the main culprits”, due to their historical emissions, underlines Annie Chaloux. “But there is a big debate because, now, the largest emitter of GHGs on the planet is China,” and some would like it to contribute to this other fund, she says.

Strong Quebec presence

Quebecers are traditionally numerous in the COPs, and their presence is noted. “Quebec stands out, when we arrive at a COP, we are a set of very, very varied stakeholders, that really marks people,” observes Leïla Copti, founding president of the public relations firm Copticom, focused on environment and climate – it will be at its eighth COP, where it supports different stakeholders. The representatives of Quebec civil society “are trained in advance, they know where they are, they know what work they have to do,” notes Patrick Rondeau. They also act as spokespersons for their peers who do not have access to these major conferences, adds André-Yanne Parent. “Not all countries have easy access to COPs; there are financial and visa issues,” she emphasizes.