Debates on the 2025 State budget in the National Assembly commence, focusing on a plan proposing 60 billion in savings amidst significant opposition, including from within Michel Barnier’s coalition. The government’s proposed measures face potential censure from the Rassemblement national, with tight timelines and numerous amendments complicating discussions. Key issues include tax increases and Social Security budget cuts, prompting conflicting interests among coalition members, highlighting tensions and differing priorities as the government navigates this challenging legislative period.
The deliberation on the revenue section of the 2025 State budget is set to commence on Monday in the National Assembly. With a projected savings plan of 60 billion euros, the discussions are anticipated to be highly contentious, especially as certain key measures face significant resistance, including from some allies of Michel Barnier.
The session will kick off at 9:30 PM, marking the beginning of crucial weeks for the nascent Barnier coalition, which is supported by a relatively unstable majority made up of members from Les Républicains and Macron’s party. The coalition faces ongoing threats of censure from the Rassemblement National.
Just two days after being rejected by the Finance Committee, the budget text reemerges in its original form during the public session, a typical practice for budget discussions. This reversal could potentially benefit the government, which saw its budget significantly altered in committee, setting the stage for challenging debates ahead.
With key articles removed and a contentious 60 billion euros in new tax revenues included, as assessed by LFI Chairman Eric Coquerel (covering areas like corporate superprofits and capital income), the situation is likely to be trying for the head of government.
“The collective effort must not devolve into a mere competition over taxation,” retorted Barnier, defending the strategic “balance” of his proposed 60 billion euros in savings, comprising 20 billion euros in new revenues and 40 billion euros in spending cuts.
– The Gamble on Debate –
Government sources indicated that discussions may continue at least until Wednesday, with the Prime Minister suggesting that they might resort to the 49.3 option if a legislative stalemate arises. “It’s essential to allow the discourse to take its course,” she noted, but hinted that constitutional measures could be utilized in case of a gridlock.
The definition of a ‘blockage’ remains uncertain. Left-wing members aim to streamline the amendment process, reducing the number significantly (planned at around 100, as opposed to approximately 470 per group). For context, Les Républicains submitted over 700 amendments, resulting in nearly 3,500 proposals pending review as of Sunday evening, with some likely to be withdrawn or deemed inadmissible.
The left’s strategy focuses on minimizing delays and pushing for a transformation of the current austerity proposal into a budget aligned with public needs. “It can be done,” stated Coquerel, emphasizing the potential shift in budget discussions.
Charles de Courson, the general rapporteur from the centrist faction, expressed less optimism, stating on France 2, “We might struggle to consider all these amendments within the time constraints unless there’s a significant withdrawal of proposals.”
On the other hand, some members within the Macron camp predict protracted debates that could lead to the government bypassing a vote in the Assembly, advancing the text directly to the Senate, where Barnier would enjoy a more favorable majority.
– The Social Security Battleground –
Interestingly, LFI is poised to present a motion for immediate rejection, which could end discussions as soon as Monday. This is expected to be opposed by both the government and the RN. “We know it won’t pass; it’s more about highlighting why this budget is flawed,” explained Coquerel on RTL.
Meanwhile, the RN is keen on securing gains, such as eliminating a planned tax increase on electricity, as the government considers raising it beyond 32 euros per megawatt-hour—an idea also met with resistance from LR deputies and the Ensemble pour la République group, who seek a return to the original 32-euro figure.
RN president Jordan Bardella critiqued the budget on Europe 1 and Cnews, labeling it as lacking direction and coherence, and did not dismiss the possibility of calling for a censure vote if significant concerns arise.
Additionally, the government faces internal dissent, with some in the Renaissance party advocating for the removal of a surtax on large corporations, while others in MoDem seek to maintain the tax on higher incomes.
Minister for Relations with Parliament Nathalie Delattre promised a “listening government,” committed to ensuring a responsible approach to the country’s economic recovery. She is scheduled to meet with coalition MPs at 8 PM on Monday, where a visit from Barnier is anticipated.
Complicating matters further, the executive will need to navigate the challenging dynamics surrounding the Social Security budget, set to be discussed in committee on Monday. Proposals under consideration include potentially troubling measures such as increasing certain employer contributions and delaying pension indexation to inflation.