The start of a new year is always a great opportunity to embark on this perilous exercise: making predictions. Well, last year, the financial oracles were wrong to the delight of investors since the stock market performed like no one predicted. We would now like observers of the political scene to imitate them? Because if what we are predicted comes true, the political year will be nightmarish: stagnation of conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and elsewhere; even more assertive domination of dictatorships; collapse of democracies. A real… political recession!
Freedom House (FH) is a site that has for decades ranked hundreds of countries based on political practices and human rights. A quick glance at its rankings confirms that the health of democratic states is under attack. Some examples… After the pandemic and the political violence of recent years, France, a country of human rights, slipped to 44e rank in the ranking while the “leader of the free world”, the United States, is even further behind, at 59e rank.
And this decline in American democracy promises to be even more spectacular if Donald Trump manages to circumvent the legal obstacles before him and once again becomes the leader of the world’s leading power next November. Especially since he promised to transform the United States into a dictatorship for at least one day. Will the birds of misfortune ultimately be right?
The FH ranking is of course dominated by the democratic pillars that are the Scandinavian countries. But a little more detailed examination is enough to increase skepticism. Thus, although Sweden obtains a perfect score, the fact remains that it flirts for several years with the extreme right. Another distinguished member of the top 10 took a similar tangent, the Netherlands. Furthermore, two other members of the top 10, Ireland and Luxembourg, are recognized tax havens.
What now, Canada? He sits in fifth place. But this ranking is less reassuring than it seems. Because the year that has just ended has been anything but a great year for Canadian democracy. After its neighbors already disturbed by Russia’s attempts at electoral destabilization in 2016, Canada also had to deal with foreign interference in 2023, in addition that of India and China.
The porosity of Canadian institutions is also attributable to this detestable electoral practice called clientelism. We thus see more and more regularly our politicians stuck between the interests of the enemy diasporas, the Sikhs and the Hindus, the Palestinians and the Jews, China and its multiple minorities, whose favors they blindly try to attract, without thinking about the disillusioning tomorrows…
Canada is also grappling with a number of hidden political vices: excessive concentration of power in the hands of the executive; a shaky federalism, the country also being one of the only ones in the West where the federated states (the provinces) do not have control over the Upper House or the Senate. To add to the democratic deficit, the Canadian Constitution is probably impossible to modify. Furthermore, the central government relies on an almost unlimited and undivided power called the power to spend.
All these imbalances perhaps explain why Justin Trudeau can aim for this historic record: pushing a minority government to the ultimate limit, namely a four-year mandate when the normal lifespan of such a government is much less than two years. To establish this record, Justin Trudeau will just have to continue to give in to the demands of the leader of the second opposition, Jagmeet Singh. In short, two men control the political agenda of 40 million Canadians…
The paradox is all the greater since the Liberals formed a minority government by coming second, behind the Conservatives, in the general election in 2021 in terms of votes cast. A shaky democracy, we said…
In short, our fifth place in the FH ranking only reflects the general regression of democratic value in the world. Should we be surprised when we know that young people, in most democracies, seem to be increasingly disinterested in politics? According to an Open Society survey carried out last summer among citizens from around thirty countries, only 57% of young people (35 years old or younger) considered a democratic regime preferable to any other form of government, compared to 71% for their elders.
In Canada, one of the highlights of 2023 was the Canadian David’s fight against the digital Goliaths of Facebook and Google to keep local media afloat. We all know the crux of the problem: the attraction that social networks have on the average Canadian, young people in particular. Not only is the average citizen increasingly disinterested in politics, but when he is interested in it, it is often by allowing himself to be manipulated by the false news invented out of whole cloth and the fabrications disseminated by these networks.
This question is not unique to Canada. Everywhere in the West, disinformation is a scourge that undermines the political sphere. All of this has the result of weakening our democracies and should seriously worry us. Because as Albert Camus said so well: “Be careful! When a democracy is sick, fascism comes to its bedside, but it is not to check on it. »