2024 is expected to be a significant year for global warming, surpassing the critical 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. Following a record-breaking November in 2023, marked by extreme weather events, the trajectory of carbon emissions remains troubling. Economic losses from climate disasters have already reached $310 billion this year. The interplay of El Niño and human-induced climate change continues to elevate temperatures, while recent studies indicate a decline in Earth’s ability to reflect solar energy.
2024: A Landmark Year for Global Warming
It has become increasingly evident that 2024 is set to break records, as it will be the first year surpassing the critical 1.5°C warming threshold compared to pre-industrial levels, a goal established by the Paris Agreement. The Climate Change Service (C3S) from the European Copernicus Observatory confirmed this on Monday.
The year 2023 concluded with the second hottest November ever recorded globally. This past November was marked by catastrophic typhoons in Asia and ongoing severe droughts in regions like Southern Africa and the Amazon. It registered a staggering 1.62°C increase compared to a typical November from the pre-industrial era, when fossil fuels were not burned on a large scale.
Out of the last 17 months, November marked the 16th time that temperature anomalies reached 1.5°C above historical averages from 1850 to 1900, according to data from Copernicus’s ERA5 database. The 1.5°C threshold is pivotal, as it represents the ambitious target of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C while striving to stay within the 1.5°C mark.
The Implications of Climate Change and Economic Impact
While the Paris Agreement outlines long-term trends, it is essential to understand that the 1.5°C average needs to be sustained over a minimum of 20 years to be classified as breached. Currently, global warming stands at approximately 1.3°C, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicting that the 1.5°C threshold could be reached between 2030 and 2035, irrespective of fluctuations in human greenhouse gas emissions, which remain close to peak levels.
Recent assessments by the UN reveal a troubling trajectory regarding carbon emissions, which could lead to a drastic rise in global temperatures by 3.1°C this century, or 2.6°C if nations adhere to their promises. Countries are expected to revise their climate goals, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), by February 2024. However, minimal agreements reached at COP29 may result in low ambition commitments.
In 2024 alone, the economic toll of climate-related natural disasters has already reached $310 billion globally, as reported by Swiss Re, a firm that serves as an insurer for other insurers. This alarming figure highlights the urgent need for significant action to mitigate climate change’s impacts.
The interplay of the El Niño phenomenon and human-induced climate change has driven global temperatures to unprecedented levels. Climatologist Robert Vautard notes that the year following an El Niño event typically witnesses higher temperatures than the initial year, with heat being distributed throughout the subsequent year. However, if temperatures fail to decline significantly in 2025, further investigations will be necessary.
A recent study published in Science indicated that the Earth has been reflecting less solar energy back into space in 2023, attributed to a reduction in low-altitude clouds and a decrease in sea ice levels. Notably, Antarctica has experienced consistently low sea ice levels since 2023, setting a new record for melting during the month of November.