Yesterday’s victory of Donald Trump against Nikki Haley in New Hampshire confirms, if need be, that he will be chosen as the Republican presidential candidate. But it does not provide a clear answer to a question that could decide his election to the presidency of the United States.
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A significant number of Republicans and independents will not vote for him in November, preferring to vote for Biden or a third-party candidate. Others will decide to abstain.
Let’s look at what the polls say to try to see what the future holds.
Even before his victory in Iowa, a poll of the New York Times found that Trump had less support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (86%) than Biden did among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (91%).
According to the Axios site, a record number of Americans, or 49%, said they were politically independent in the spring of 2023. And among independent voters, a poll indicates that Trump is losing support. Biden would be ahead of Trump, 50% to 38%.
According to Gallup, independents are now the dominant voting bloc in the United States. Americans identifying as Democrats are down to 27%, the lowest rate on record. Democrats have held the advantage most of the time since regular polling began in 1991.
- Listen to the Lester-Durocher meeting with Journal de Montréal blogger Normand Lester via QUB :
Anyone rather than Trump
The media focuses its attention on Trump’s cultist MAGA supporters, but there are also some in the Republican Party never-trumpers whom Trump calls RINOs (“Republicans in name only”).
Another poll finds that 43% of Nikki Haley’s supporters in Iowa said they would vote for Biden over Trump in the presidential election. Republicans are leaving the party, disgusted with Trump’s positions and declarations announcing that he intends to lead an authoritarian government made up entirely of Trumpists as civil servants.
Nothing is won for Biden
Biden voters will vote for him for lack of anything better. He faces the disenchantment of some Democratic voters who threaten to vote for a third party candidate (37%) or to stay home in November. He has alienated some supporters, among other things, by his unconditional support for Israel in Gaza. Biden’s approval rating is just 33%, worse than Trump’s lowest level while president (36%). The lowest since George Bush from 2006 to 2008.
Only 31% of women approve of Biden’s work in the White House while 57% of them voted for him in 2020. But in one area, Biden leads Trump by 15 points: being honest and trustworthy.
When it comes to the mental acuity of Trump and Biden, voters believe it is declining for both men. Trump’s is down seven points compared to last May while Biden’s fell by four points.
Trump is still prancing towards the presidency. But more and more Americans simply seem fed up with the character’s antics and the chaos he causes.
It’s going to be interesting to see the results of next month’s Republican primaries in South Carolina, where Nikki Haley served as governor.
The November presidential elections will be very close. And Trump is already warning that he and his supporters will not accept defeat.