(Washington) With a name echoing the most prestigious political dynasty in the United States, Robert Kennedy Jr. ran for the November presidential election as an alternative to the Trump-Biden duo. If the chances of victory for the nephew of “JFK” are slim, his candidacy worries Democrats and Republicans alike.
Robert Kennedy Junior can boast of exceeding 10% of voting intentions in the polls. A popularity which seems to affect Joe Biden’s chances more than those of his Republican rival, according to these same opinion surveys.
Al Gore against George W. Bush in 2000, Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump in 2016: after Democratic defeats where Green Party candidates attracted part of the left-wing electorate, Joe Biden’s campaign team does not can only watch the arrival of “RFK Jr” with a wary eye.
“The hyperpolarization” of the political scene in the United States “is the reason why a candidate from a third party with a well-known name represents such a threat at this moment” of the campaign, estimates Donald Nieman, political scientist at Binghamton University.
According to the expert, there are only “six or seven states” that could truly swing one way or the other in November, and victory in some could be decided by just 10,000 votes. “Anything that can siphon off voters” to the detriment of one candidate or the other could be “a decisive factor”, underlines Donald Nieman.
Pivotal States
Environmental law lawyer, Robert Kennedy Junior is particularly known for his opposition to vaccines.
The son of the former Democratic Minister of Justice, “Bobby” Kennedy (assassinated in 1968), claims to have gathered enough support to appear on the ballot in six states in November, and now says he is aiming for a million signatures to qualify in all 50 US states.
For Charlie Kolean, director of strategy at the conservative consulting firm Red Pac, “Kennedy represents a real threat to the Biden camp in swing states.”
The Republican cites in particular very good figures for Robert Kennedy Junior in polls among independents and young people, “groups which have traditionally voted for Biden”.
The Democratic camp therefore decided to go on the offensive, notably deploying signs mounted on a truck around “RFK Jr” campaign events.
However, it cannot be ruled out that this alternative candidacy could damage Donald Trump’s chances more than those of Joe Biden.
In 1992, businessman Ross Perot garnered 19% of the vote, and surely cost Republican George Bush Sr. the re-election against Bill Clinton.
Robert Kennedy Junior’s conspiratorial overtones and his rejection of American aid to Ukraine made him for a time the darling of Donald Trump’s “MAGA” movement.
But the former Republican president assures him, Robert Kennedy Junior is not a new Ross Perot.
“I’m thrilled he’s a candidate!” “, he recently launched on his Truth Social platform.
Rich running mate
Robert Kennedy Junior had once sought the Democratic presidential nomination, but abandoned the primary campaign under pressure, according to him, from Joe Biden’s allies.
For Keith Nahigian, an advisor to George Bush Sr. in his ill-fated 1992 campaign, the Biden camp made a “gigantic mistake” by attracting the ire of “RFK Jr”, instead of simply beating him at the polls in the primaries.
“They could lose the presidency because they did not think sufficiently about their strategy at the start of the campaign,” the man who worked on six presidential campaigns told AFP.
Another thorn in Joe Biden’s side, Robert Kennedy Junior chose the very rich Nicole Shanahan as his running mate, allowing him to boost the financing of his campaign.
This lawyer, a former donor to the Democratic camp, is also described by Keith Nahigian as “very left-wing”, and therefore unlikely to attract the votes of Donald Trump voters.
“In the last two weeks, both Trump and Biden have really started to attack “RFK” because they see him as a credible threat, particularly to Biden in these key states where he is currently the loser,” said the former Republican adviser. .
“Independent candidates have a big impact on an election, and it doesn’t matter if you’re an incumbent president, or a former president, you have to take that seriously. »