2023 assessment and 2024 outlook in Italy and Senegal

The correspondents’ club is interested in the events that marked the year 2023 and the issues that will occupy the year 2024 in Rome and Dakar.

At the end of 2023, the time for taking stock is approaching. We are going to Senegal and Italy to find out what characterized the year which is ending and to find out what will be at the center of concerns in 2024. In Italy, no major reform accomplished this year, but 2024 should allow us to find out more. more on the path on which Giogia Meloni’s right-far right coalition is leading Italy. In Senegal, after a very busy year politically and judicially, all eyes are on the presidential election.

Giogia Meloni’s Italy, a laboratory for the EU?

The results of the year 2023, after a first full year in power, for the right-extreme coalition led by Giogia Meloni can be summed up in one formula: no departure, no brilliance either. Under Giorgia Meloni, the Italian economy held up. Growth and inflation remain roughly on trend in the Eurozone. Growth will be a little lower next year, while Italy was stronger than the others. But it has done nothing, in fact the opposite, to cure a local disease: the debt. The 2024 budget even increases it by an additional 16 billion.

Internationally, Giorgia Meloni maintained support for Ukraine, despite the reluctance of her far-right League allies. And she keeps the Atlanticist line which was that of her predecessor Mario Draghi. There is a major broken promise regarding immigration. More than 155,000 exile arrivals this year, the figure is the highest since 2016, when she campaigned on a drastic restriction of entries. Finally, apart from a few financial incentives, Giorgia Meloni has done nothing to meet Italy’s challenge: its demographics are in free fall, the country could lose five million inhabitants by 2050.

Italy is often considered a political laboratory. And the first observation is that even if Giorgia Meloni comes from a post-fascist party, Fratelli d’Italia, we have not changed the regime in Italy. The government has placed its men and women (especially its men) in key positions on public television. But in short, all his predecessors did the same thing. This is a question to follow in 2024, because the majority assumes that the left held the world of culture and media and intends to rely on public television to offer what it calls another narrative, right therefore.

Giorgia Meloni also carries a constitutional reform project with a significant change: the direct election of the Prime Minister. This would have the effect of minimizing the influence of the President of the Republic, one of whose roles is precisely to appoint the Prime Minister. Giorgia Meloni already exercises her powers very widely, her party is in the lead by far in voting intentions before the European elections, the opposition cannot really exist. Parliament does not have much to say, an Italian characteristic that it has rather reinforced.

A test election for Senegalese democracy

After a long suspense, in this country of 18 million inhabitants at the tip of West Africa, President Macky Sall in power since 2012 has decided: he will not participate in the presidential election of February 25, 2024 to run for a third term. He finally designated his current Prime Minister Amadou Ba as the presidential coalition candidate. On the other hand, it is the participation or not of Ousmane Sonko, the main opponent of power, which kept Senegal in suspense throughout the year. Sentenced to two years in prison for “corruption of youth”, the politician with a pan-Africanist and sovereignist discourse was removed from the electoral lists.

Arrested at the end of July in particular for calling for insurrection, it is from prison that Ousmane Sonko is still fighting legally to be reinstated on the electoral register, which is the essential prerequisite to be eligible. He criticizes Macky Sall for wanting to exclude him from the presidential election through repeated legal proceedings.

It was in this context that violent demonstrations broke out in June between his supporters and the police, which left 23 dead according to Amnesty International. In total, 70 candidates for the February 2024 election have submitted their files to the constitutional council, including Ousmane Sonko. They still have to wait until January 20 to find out who will be able to participate or not.

All eyes are already on February 25, 2024, the first round of the presidential election which will be held for the first time without the outgoing president. A test for Senegalese democracy, which is an exception in the sub-region marked by military putsches like in Burkina Faso, Mali or Niger. The question is whether Senegal, which has never experienced a coup since its independence, will live up to its reputation.

Senegal is facing a wave of mass departures of irregular migrants towards Spain, via the Canary Islands. High inflation, lack of job opportunities, scarcity of fishing resources… So many reasons which push young people to take the risk of getting into illegal canoes. The country then places a lot of hope in the exploitation of oil and gas which should begin in the first half of 2024.

At the start of the year, there will also be the African Cup of Nations in Ivory Coast. A highly anticipated sporting event in the country, as the Senegal Lions won the competition for the first time in February 2022. Supporters hope that the feat of victory at this major event in African football will be repeated , which begins on January 13.