Data from the 2021 census shows that Quebec’s share of the Canadian population has decreased for the 11and subsequent census.
Updated yesterday at 11:24 p.m.
Fewer immigrants in Quebec than elsewhere in the country
Since 1966, the demographic weight of Quebec has decreased with each census, held every five years. In 1966, Quebec represented 28.9% of the Canadian population. This proportion rose to 23.2% in 2016, then to 23.0% in 2021.
From 2016 to 2021, Quebec’s population grew by 4.1%, which is below the Canadian average of 5.2%, according to Statistics Canada’s 2021 census data released Wednesday.
Only one province, Newfoundland and Labrador, saw its population decline (-1.8%) between 2016 and 2021.
Why has Quebec seen its demographic weight decrease over the years? Because it welcomes fewer immigrants than the rest of Canada.
Quebec and Ontario are seeing their populations increase substantially in the same way (+0.2% per year) through the gap between births and deaths. The difference ? All things considered, Ontario welcomes more immigrants. Before the pandemic, immigration enabled Ontario to increase its population by 1.4% in 2018-2019, compared to a 1.1% increase in Quebec (+95,057 immigrants and non-permanent residents).
During the pandemic, immigration to Quebec dropped to just 18,748 people in 2020-2021 (population growth rate of 0.2%). The gap between births and deaths (natural increase) was 12,650 that year, which increased the Quebec population by 0.1%.
Growth brake during the pandemic
In Canada, as in Quebec, approximately 85% of population growth is linked to immigration.
With the tightening of borders, the COVID-19 pandemic has curbed immigration. And by the same token the growth of the Canadian population, which in 2020 was at its lowest level since the First World War.
1.6%
Canada’s population grew by 1.6% in 2019. This was the largest annual population increase (in percentage) since the late 1980s.
0.4%
In 2020, as immigration decreased due to the pandemic, Canada’s population grew by only 0.4%.
1.4 children per woman
Fertility rate in Canada in 2020. According to Statistics Canada, this rate has been declining since 2015.
Canada, champion of the G7
Canada is the G7 country whose population grew the most (by percentage) from 2016 to 2021. A striking example: Canada’s population grew at the same rate as India’s. Both countries rank seventh among G20 countries.
The rule of the suburbs
The suburbs of the metropolitan area continued to be more attractive than Montreal.
The suburbs of the island of Montreal have seen their population increase by 5.8% in five years, compared to 3.2% on the island.
Among the 19 largest cities in Quebec, Mirabel has experienced the most significant population growth in five years. The city on the northern shore of Montreal has seen its population increase by… 21%! This represents approximately 10,500 new residents, which increased the population of Mirabel to 61,108 inhabitants. To give you an idea, Saint-Jérôme ranks second with a 7.9% increase in its population in five years.
Mirabel is close to everything, while being removed. We have many old villages, there is a rural character, but with an urban community. What attracts people to us is the quality of life. People can have a larger lot, we offer a lot of services, but with a very low tax rate. We also have a very large industrial sector with well-paying jobs, and people want to settle close to where they work.
Patrick Charbonneau, Mayor of Mirabel
Saguenay is the only one, among the 10 largest cities in Quebec, whose population has decreased (-0.8%, to reach 144,723 inhabitants).
Difficult for the city center
During the pandemic, many residents decided to leave downtown Montreal.
Between 1er July 2020 and the 1er July 2021, the city center (limits: rue Atateken to the east, avenue des Pins to the north, avenue Atwater to the west and the Saint-Laurent river to the south) lost 3.1% of its population. By comparison, downtown Toronto saw its population grow by 0.4% during this pandemic year.
From 2016 to 2021, downtown Montreal, however, experienced a 24.2% increase in population. This is more than in Toronto (+16.2%).
The problem is that the population is growing much more slowly in the central neighborhoods of Montreal (+ 2.1% in neighborhoods less than 10 minutes by car from downtown; + 3.4% in neighborhoods 10-20 minutes by car from the city center) than in the suburbs further from the “450” (+ 4.0% at 20-30 minutes from the city center; + 7.0% at more than 30 minutes from the downtown).
There is still a lot of work to be done to densify downtown Montreal, which looks more like Calgary’s than those of Toronto and Vancouver or the borough of Manhattan in New York. There are 8,367 residents per square kilometer in downtown Montreal, compared to 7,778 in Calgary, 16,608 in Toronto, 18,837 in Vancouver and 28,668 in Manhattan (New York).
Despite COVID-19, 98% of Canadians participated in Statistics Canada’s census in May 2021.
With the collaboration of Pierre-André Normandin, The Press