2019 and 2021 federal elections | There was foreign interference, but no impact on results, says Commissioner Hogue

(Ottawa) There is no doubt that foreign states engaged in foreign interference activities during the 2019 and 2021 general elections. But these clandestine and deceptive maneuvers carried out by authoritarian countries like China did not affected the results of these two ballots, concludes Judge Marie-Josée Hogue, who chairs the Commission on Foreign Interference.

In an initial report eagerly awaited by the political class, Commissioner Hogue warns, however, that foreign interference remains an evolving and growing threat.

Everything must therefore be done to detect, prevent and counter it. Otherwise, Canadians’ confidence in their democratic institutions risks fraying, she warned.

“Acts of foreign interference were committed during the last two federal general elections, but they did not undermine the integrity of our electoral system, the strength of which has not been shaken. Voters were able to vote, their votes were duly recorded and counted, but there is no suggestion that there was any interference whatsoever in this regard,” the commissioner argued in her 227-page report.

That said, it is “possible” that the disinformation campaign led by organizations linked to the Beijing regime on social networks like WeChat and targeting incumbent Conservative MP Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston–Richmond East, B.C. , during the 2021 elections, “led to the election of one candidate more than another”. But the commissioner does not have irrefutable proof to confirm this.

Nor can it conclude, as former Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole argued before the Commission, that the disinformation campaign waged against him and his party during the last election campaign, due to positions deemed hostile towards China, would have caused this political party to lose between five and nine seats.

But she adds further: “whether the electoral results are affected or not, the fact remains that foreign interference is widespread, insidious and harmful to Canada’s democratic institutions.”

“The mere possibility that disinformation carried out and encouraged by a foreign authority could have had a decisive impact in a constituency is serious. »

China and India singled out

According to Commissioner Hogue, China is primarily responsible for foreign interference in the country through tactics such as bribes, blackmail, threats, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns. India is also singled out for granting “illicit and clandestine” financial support to candidates favorable to New Delhi. The Commission found no evidence that Russia interfered in the last two votes.

In the case of the race for the Liberal Party nomination in the riding of Don Valley-North in 2019, won by candidate Han Dong, it would have been tainted by maneuvers by people close to officials of the Chinese communist regime. Among other things, foreign students of Asian origin were bused in large numbers to the inauguration grounds in an effort to support it.

If Commissioner Hogue did not have the mandate to determine what happened at this nomination meeting, she maintains that this incident shows to what extent nomination races “can be gateways for Foreign states that wish to interfere in our democratic processes.”

She notes that the eligibility criteria for voting in the Liberal Party nomination races “are not very strict” and the control measures in force “do not seem vigorous.” It also intends to examine this aspect “carefully” during the second phase of the Commission’s work.

Recall that Mr. Dong left the Liberal caucus last year after the Global News network reported that he suggested to a Chinese diplomat stationed in Toronto that Beijing should delay the release of two Canadians, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig , so as not to help the Conservative Party’s electoral cause. Mr. Dong, who has since served as an independent MP, denied the allegations and filed a lawsuit against Global News.

In her report, the commissioner notes that foreign interference activities have nevertheless affected public confidence in Canadian democracy. She also notes that these activities do not affect the entire Canadian population equally. They cause more harm to diaspora communities in the country, such as the Chinese and Indian diaspora, among others.

This initial report is the result of several months of investigation and 21 days of hearings, including 15 days which took place in public. In all, 66 witnesses were heard and the Commission was able to consult thousands of pages of documents affecting national security that were not redacted.

Next fall, the Commission will hear from experts on the measures that Ottawa should adopt to better detect and counter clandestine and deceptive activities carried out by authoritarian regimes. The final report containing its recommendations must be tabled no later than December 31, less than a year before the next federal election, scheduled for October 2025.