Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
Erin O’Toole revealed her dearest wish for 2022 in early January, on Twitter: to remain leader of the Conservative Party, courting the fringe of her caucus and activists who threaten this same New Year’s resolution. To achieve this, he began to hammer that Justin Trudeau was trying to “normalize confinements”. And he repeats that the non-vaccinated must be “accommodated”. A strategy that could turn out to be a double-edged sword.
The Leader of the Official Opposition has raised his voice since the holidays. Conservatives already opposed compulsory vaccination, and instead advocated voluntary vaccination and rapid testing for those who refuse it.
But now on January 5, Erin O’Toole tweeted a new line of attack. “Justin Trudeau is normalizing confinements because he has not done his job,” he said, accusing the Prime Minister of not having provided the provinces with the resources necessary to manage the pandemic.
The message was repeated eight times in ten days, as well as at press briefings. “Canada’s Conservatives want end the lockdowns, the limits imposed on your freedoms and the lingering effects on Mental Health of our society”, he also published in English, as a slogan embedded in an image that looks like an election poster.
“He seems to be concentrating his efforts, at the start of the year, on trying to recover the situation for political ends by bowing to the hesitations of certain people with regard to vaccination, whether they are party members or people he would like to bring back to the party,” observes political commentator Tim Powers.
This could bear fruit temporarily, according to him. But this ex-conservative strategist also sees two potential dangers emerging.
First, that the electorate does not forget as easily as Erin O’Toole hopes, when the time comes, his positions for the defenders of individual freedoms and the free choice to be vaccinated. “Betting on someone having amnesia does not mean they [les électeurs] will suffer from amnesia,” he said.
Second, let those who give him a hard time in caucus see his change of position as permission to force his hand on other issues. “There is the risk that he finds himself in perpetual negotiation or haggling to ensure he has support. »
Polls and disgruntled
The strategy comes as no surprise, given the fall that Erin O’Toole has just gone through. His party came second in the September elections, his detractors made no secret of their dissatisfaction publicly, and two petitions asked (unsuccessfully) for the vote of confidence in him to be brought forward.
The turn to appease these dissatisfied people is therefore more assumed, in this new year.
Erin O’Toole also feels the popular wind. Canadians are tired of sanitary measures. A Léger poll conducted with the Association for Canadian Studies in early January revealed that 58% of Canadians were satisfied with the measures put in place by their province – a drop of five percentage points in barely a month. Ditto on the side of the satisfaction rate with regard to the management of the crisis by the federal government, which now stands at 62% – a drop of five points since the beginning of December.
The Conservative leader sees, like Quebec Premier François Legault, popular fatigue setting in.
After courting the CAQ leader throughout the election campaign, Mr. O’Toole, however, allowed himself to oppose his “health contribution”.
On this front, however, he is at odds with the majority. The Maru Public Opinion firm noted last week that 60% of Canadians supported the idea of a fine imposed on those who had not been vaccinated. But what probably explains the position of the Conservative leader is that it is in Alberta that people oppose it the most (46%).
Thus, on January 6, Mr. O’Toole argued that it was necessary “to find reasonable accommodations” for the minority of unvaccinated Canadians and to strike a balance “between protecting the safety of the population and preventing people are losing their jobs.
Quebecers are waiting their turn
For the moment, the Quebec Conservatives do not seem to be worried about their leader’s realignment. It is said to understand that his attention is turned to the western provinces, where his protesters mainly come from. His turn did not percolate with the Quebec electorate. But we also hope that this defense of the concerns of a minority of MPs will be short-lived.
However, in the camp of critics of Erin O’Toole, we do not seem satisfied. A “lack of leadership” is blamed on the leader, who has changed his positions.
A video in which Mr. O’Toole affirms – wrongly – that Steven Guilbeault would have promised to end the use of fossil fuels within 18 months also went badly. The Minister of the Environment expressed himself badly in an interview and spoke instead of the end of fossil fuel subsidies.
Some conservatives have denounced “disinformation” that goes “too far”.
The Conservative leader had angered his caucus last year by promising himself, before the election, a form of carbon pricing.
By striving now to reconcile with all the factions of his party, Erin O’Toole is disappointing some and runs the risk of alienating potential voters whom he will need if he manages to stay in the saddle until the next ballot.